The Federal Reserve will fire its next salvo in the war against inflation on Wednesday afternoon. That is likely to include an interest-rate increase of 0.75 percentage points and a hawkish tone from Chairman Jerome Powell at his post-meeting press conference. Markets won’t get their much-anticipated all-clear signal from the Fed.
Futures markets are overwhelmingly pricing in a fed-funds rate target range of 3.75% to 4.00% after this week’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, which began on Tuesday. That would mean the sixth rate hike of 2022 and fourth-straight 0.75 percentage-point bump. The committee’s policy statement is out at 2 p.m. ET and Powell speaks at 2:30 p.m. ET.
There is reason to believe the Fed is much closer to the end of its hiking cycle than the beginning. Just don’t expect Powell to say as much.
“The Fed’s best hand is to hike [0.75 percentage point] and otherwise zip it,” writes Richard Farr, chief market strategist at Merion Capital Group.
Several indicators of economic activity have slowed over the past year, particularly in interest-rate sensitive areas of the economy such as housing. Economies abroad are in tougher shape. The labor market is a key holdout in the U.S.: The unemployment rate is at 3.5% and jobs and wages are still growing. The so-called wage-price spiral is helping to keep core inflation uncomfortably high, up 8.2% in the year through September.
Futures markets are pricing in the greatest odds of a peak, or terminal, rate of 5.00% to 5.25% sometime in the first half of 2023, then a decline by the end of next year. Investors and traders have been fixated lately on the prospects of a “Fed pivot,” or the moment when the central bank moves its stance from tightening to loosening policy, or at least pausing hikes and holding rates steady for some time.
All fall long, risk assets have rallied in unison on days when the collective mood leaned toward a closer pivot, and sold off on the reverse days. Part of the Fed’s dilemma is that monetary policy works with “long and variable lags,” in the words of Milton Friedman. That means that it will take time for higher interest rates to affect the real economy and damp inflation, and it might make sense to slow or stop rate hikes before inflation is anywhere near a comfortable level.
A sign that FOMC members see a looming end to rate hikes could come in the policy statement. Watch for an alternation or removal of the line from the prior statement that says the committee “anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate.”
“They are working hard to ensure that inflationary psychology is routed,” writes John Vail, chief global strategist at Nikko Asset Management. “Not just one negative data point, but a string of such over a period of months is required for a change in the Fed stance from its current data-dependent, but generally hawkish bias, to something a bit more neutral.”
Any indication of such a shift in Fed policy will be interpreted by the market as dovish, prompting rallies in stocks and bonds. A bond rally would push down yields and make financial conditions easier, working against the Fed’s tightening and inflation fight.
So, expect Powell to remain hawkish in his remarks on Wednesday, even if the chairman believes that a pivot or pause may soon be warranted.
“The problem is the moment he relinquishes this hawkish stance—the moment he utters anything remotely resembling a dovish word—is the moment financial conditions ease far more than what we’ve seen over the last few weeks,” writes RBC Capital Markets chief U.S. economist Tom Porcelli. “As much as we think this hiking cycle is virtually over and should be over, we just don’t see how there is any incentive for him to suggest as much right now given the financial conditions consideration.”
The opposite risk of over-tightening also exists. Inflation needs to come down, and it may cost a recession to get there. The longer the Fed keeps rates higher, the lower the return investors can expect from many asset classes.
Officials will get a look at two months of employment and Consumer Price Index readings before the FOMC next meets in December. Those could go a long way toward determining the details of the central bank’s next moves. For now, however, the message will remain “we still have work to do.”
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