Nordic pension funds are accelerating their withdrawal from US markets to avoid rising macroeconomic risks, fiscal uncertainty, and geopolitical pressures.
This trend is spreading from fixed income to equity considerations. Major pension funds in Sweden and Denmark have disclosed large-scale reduction plans for US Treasury holdings, while Greenland's pension fund is unusually evaluating a complete sell-off of US stocks in protest against US political pressure on the region.
Søren Schock Petersen, CEO of Greenland's pension fund SISA Pension, revealed on January 22 that the fund's board is engaged in intense debate over a full exit from US markets. Although a final decision has not been made, this signifies that geopolitical tensions are forcing smaller global asset holders to re-examine their exposure to the US market. Concurrently, recent territorial claims by the Trump administration regarding Greenland have become a key trigger for this regional asset allocation adjustment.
In the bond market, the divestment action is more decisive. Sweden's largest private pension fund, Alecta, and Denmark's pension fund AkademikerPension have already taken substantial action. Alecta's Chief Investment Officer Pablo Bernengo confirmed that the institution has sold the vast majority of its US Treasury holdings since the beginning of 2025; AkademikerPension has also explicitly stated it will completely liquidate its US Treasury holdings by the end of this month. Both institutions unanimously identified expanding US budget deficits and declining policy predictability as the core factors driving their decisions.
These series of measures send a clear signal to the market: under multiple pressures including a weakening US dollar, rising credit risk, and intensifying geopolitical friction, the confidence of European long-term capital in "American exceptionalism" and the safety of US dollar assets is wavering. Investors are redefining "safe-haven assets," and the traditional pricing logic for risk-free assets is facing a severe test.
As an institution at the center of the geopolitical storm, SISA Pension, which manages approximately $1.1 billion in assets, faces a more complex choice. About 50% of SISA Pension's asset exposure is in the US, primarily concentrated in publicly traded stocks. Søren Schock Petersen stated in an interview that although the fund is small and cannot deal a substantive blow to US capital markets, under sustained political pressure, the fund may be forced to act and declare that it has "had enough." Any divestment decision would carry significant "symbolic meaning."
However, Petersen admitted that this decision-making process is full of trade-offs. Given that US stocks comprise about 70% of the MSCI World Index and their recent strong performance, divestment could harm members' interests. He pointed out that considering only half of the US population voted for Trump, whether a full exit is fair, and whether members would appreciate sacrificing returns for a political stance, remain key considerations for the board and investment committee.
The direct trigger for this reassessment is the ongoing pressure from Trump's intent to control Greenland. Despite a subsequent withdrawal of tariff plans and claims of a so-called "future agreement framework," Petersen confirmed that even if the situation appears to have eased, the fund maintains its stance of reconsidering its US investments and will no longer ignore this political risk.
Unlike SISA Pension's hesitation in the stock market, the retreat of major Nordic pension funds from the fixed income sector is a settled matter.
On January 21, Sweden's Alecta CIO Pablo Bernengo confirmed to Bloomberg that the institution has adopted a phased strategy since the beginning of 2025, selling off the vast majority of its US Treasury holdings. According to prior reports by Swedish newspaper Dagens Industri, Alecta held approximately 100 billion Swedish kronor (about $11 billion) in US Treasuries at the start of 2025.
Simultaneously, Denmark's AkademikerPension also explicitly stated on Tuesday, January 20, that it plans to completely liquidate its US Treasury holdings by the end of the month. Both institutions coincidentally cited expanding US budget deficits, soaring national debt, and declining policy predictability as the core factors driving this decision.
This wave of selling is not an isolated incident but reflects a reassessment by Nordic institutional investors of the definition of "safe-haven assets" under the current US political and fiscal climate. Beyond concerns about fiscal sustainability, the geopolitical tensions triggered by the Trump administration's recent territorial claims on Greenland have also become a significant catalyst for this asset allocation adjustment. AkademikerPension's Chief Investment Officer Anders Schelde stated bluntly that the quality of the US as a credit entity is showing signs of decline, with a long-term fiscal situation that is "unsustainable."
Although some institutions indicated they would continue to monitor developments closely and have not completely changed their view on US risk, the divestment actions of Nordic pension giants send a clear signal to the market: under the dual pressures of a weakening US dollar and rising credit risk, US Treasuries, once considered the world's safest asset, are facing a severe test of their attractiveness.
This series of reduction actions occurs against a backdrop of institutional investors rethinking what constitutes a safe haven. As the US political climate changes and debt issues become more apparent, the traditionally risk-free asset—US Treasuries—is facing repricing from European long-term investors. The moves by Alecta and AkademikerPension may be just the beginning, suggesting that the pattern of international capital flows could face a new round of adjustment amid changes in the global macro environment.
Beyond fiscal and market factors, concerns about extreme geopolitical scenarios are also being incorporated into risk models. Greenland's Premier stated on Tuesday that residents need to prepare for a possible military invasion, however unlikely. SISA Pension's Petersen considers the "worst-case scenario" to be a US invasion.
Under this extreme hypothesis, Petersen predicts that most Greenlanders would go to Denmark, which could harm the valuation of the fund's private investments on the island, such as shares in seafood companies. More sensitive is the issue of asset preservation. Petersen stated that while it's assumed SISA's assets would not be seized by the US in an invasion event, "but of course, you can never be sure." This uncertainty further exacerbates management's reassessment of geopolitical risk exposure, hinting that the pattern of international capital flows may face a new round of adjustment amid changes in the global macro environment.
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