On February 2nd, as we step into 2026, global financial markets are undergoing profound structural adjustments, with gold's status as a core safe-haven asset being significantly reinforced once again. Jin Fenglai indicated that the recent substantial upward revision of the year-end 2026 gold price forecast to $6,300 per ounce by the internationally renowned investment bank JPMorgan Chase reflects the market's steadfast confidence in a long-term bull market for precious metals, even after experiencing short-term sharp fluctuations. Although gold and silver experienced a technical pullback over the past weekend due to a rebounding US dollar and previous overbought conditions, this correction has not shaken the core logic supporting the upward trend in gold prices.
The wave of purchasing by official institutions is a key driver behind this round of target price increases. Jin Fenglai stated that relevant data shows global central banks collectively purchased approximately 863 tons of gold in 2025, with 230 tons acquired in the fourth quarter alone. Even after the gold price breached the $4,000 per ounce milestone, the desire for reserve diversification among nations remains strong. Central bank demand is expected to remain at a high level of around 800 tons in 2026; this structural, sustained buying provides a solid foundation for price support. Jin Fenglai believes the trend of shifting from foreign exchange reserves to hard assets still has a long way to run, and gold's appeal as a versatile portfolio hedge is being continuously reshaped.
Concurrently, the pace of investor capital inflows is also accelerating markedly. Jin Fenglai noted that not only are holdings in gold ETFs climbing steadily, but private demand for physical gold bars and coins is also exceptionally robust. This indicates that against a backdrop of increasing global macroeconomic uncertainty, investors are becoming ever more reliant on gold as a risk-hedging tool. Although rising prices have made the market atmosphere "increasingly thin," analysis suggests current real demand remains well above historical thresholds that would trigger a crash; the structural market trend does not yet carry the risk of collapsing under its own weight.
Compared to gold's stability, the performance of the silver market appears more aggressive and accompanied by greater volatility. Jin Fenglai explained that because silver lacks a structural base of buying similar to that from central banks, it has shown greater fragility than gold during the recent pullback. Although it may face deeper consolidation in the short term, benefiting from the overall uplift in the precious metals complex, the silver price is expected to find it difficult to completely surrender its recent gains, with its average base likely to hold between $75 and $80 per ounce.
Although short-term price fluctuations are inevitable, the long-term growth momentum driven jointly by central banks and investors remains intact. This deep-seated reshaping of supply-demand balance will continue to push the price center for precious metals higher, making the $6,300 target no longer seem out of reach. Jin Fenglai believes that for investors, within the current diversification trend, every pullback caused by technical factors should perhaps be viewed as an opportunity for medium-to-long-term positioning.
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