By the midday close on January 13th, the ChiNext Index had fallen 0.83%, with many commercial space stocks experiencing a significant pullback and hitting the brakes. Aerospace Hi-Tech Holding Group Co.,Ltd., Beijing BDStar Navigation Co., Ltd., Aerospace CH UAV Co., Ltd., Zaisheng Technology Co., Ltd., Shunho Resources Co., Ltd., and Guizhou Space Appliance Co., Ltd. all plunged to the daily limit-down. Multiple aerospace and aviation ETF funds also saw heavy losses, dropping over 5%.
Notably, the performance of commercial space concept stocks diverged. As of 13:01, several individual stocks began to rebound. Shaanxi Huada Science Technology Co.,Ltd., CETC Chip Technology Co., Ltd., Eastern Communications Co., Ltd., Sunwave Communications Co., Ltd., and FiberHome Telecommunication Technologies Co., Ltd. all surged to the daily limit-up, while Tianjin Yineng Technology Co., Ltd. saw gains of nearly 18%. The heavyweight China Spacesat Co.,Ltd., with a market cap of 200 billion yuan, rallied with gains exceeding 5%, after having hit limit-down earlier in the morning session.
Previously, driven by news of the application for 203,000 satellites and the latest expansion updates for Starlink, A-share commercial space concept stocks were active on January 12th, sparking another wave of limit-up rallies. However, industry experts pointed out that there is still a considerable timeframe from satellite system application to actual launch, suggesting the market should maintain a rational perspective.
On January 11th, the ITU website revealed that between December 25th and 31st, 2025, China formally submitted applications to the ITU for frequency and orbital resources for an additional 203,000 satellites, covering 14 satellite constellations, including low and medium Earth orbit satellites. This represents China's largest-ever concentrated international application for frequency and orbital resources, with applicants including China Satellite Network Group Co., Ltd. (China SatNet) and Yuanxin Satellite (Shanghai) Co., Ltd.
It is noteworthy that besides satellite operators, this round of applications also included commercial aerospace companies, telecommunications operators, and other institutions, such as the Radio Spectrum Research and Development Innovation Institute (referred to as the "Radio Innovation Institute"), China Mobile, and China Telecom. Among them, the Radio Innovation Institute applied for 96,714 satellites each for its CTC-1 and CTC-2 constellations, totaling 193,428 satellites, accounting for over 95% of the total applications.
In 2025, China conducted over 90 space launches, setting a new annual record, and placed more than 300 spacecraft (including rideshares) into orbit. The number of launches and payloads saw significant increases compared to 2024, with an average launch cycle of approximately one launch every 5 days, marking a new level of launch density and mission scale.
However, as of December 2025, the in-orbit satellite counts for China's two major satellite internet constellations were 136 for the GW constellation and 108 for the Qianfan constellation. These figures might lead to market expectations for satellite launch progress falling short of projections.
Some industry insiders believe that this large-scale application has the potential to activate the entire industrial chain encompassing satellite manufacturing, launch, and operation, thereby promoting the scaled enhancement and breakthrough of core capabilities in China's aerospace industry.
Yang Feng, founder and CEO of Spacety Co., Ltd., pointed out that China's recent application for 200,000 satellites to the ITU is essentially oriented towards long-term national strategic planning and space resource allocation, which is fundamentally different from SpaceX's expansion permits based on a mature commercial closed-loop. Leading in application numbers does not directly equate to surpassing current engineering capabilities; translating plans into actual constellations still faces challenges in systems engineering, manufacturing, and launch.
On the evening of January 12th, several leading commercial space concept stocks that had seen massive gains issued announcements to warn of trading risks. The stocks involved included SpaceTY Co., Ltd., Aerospace Times Electronics Co., Ltd., China Information Communication Technologies Group Co., Ltd. (CICT), China Spacesat Co.,Ltd., Zaisheng Technology Co., Ltd., Ricol Defence Co., Ltd., and Eastern Communications Co., Ltd. Among them, both SpaceTY Co., Ltd. and Ricol Defence Co., Ltd. stated that if their stock prices experience further abnormal increases, the companies may apply for trading suspensions for verification.
Notably, this marked the most concentrated day of risk warnings since the commercial space concept stocks initiated a new round of upward trends in late December of the previous year. The figures disclosed in the risk warnings clearly show that the gains of many commercial space concept stocks have been exceptionally sharp. In less than two months, the cumulative closing price increases for SpaceTY Co., Ltd., Aerospace Times Electronics Co., Ltd., Zaisheng Technology Co., Ltd., and China Spacesat Co.,Ltd. reached 265.82%, 194.40%, 207.56%, and 179.16%, respectively; Ricol Defence Co., Ltd. saw a cumulative deviation of 106.67% in its closing price over nine consecutive trading days.
Currently, it is widely believed within the industry that the "story-telling" phase for commercial aerospace is not yet over. On the manufacturing front, China's cost for producing low-orbit satellites still lags behind SpaceX's and needs to be gradually narrowed through mass production. In transportation, commercially viable reusable rockets have not yet achieved a successful "orbit insertion + recovery," and even after success, multiple verifications will be needed to ensure reliability and stability. On the application side, insiders indicate that the link between manufacturers "providing services" and the public "choosing to use these services" is not fully established, and how to truly integrate satellite applications with public demand still requires exploration.
As capital markets continue to surge, many industry professionals have repeatedly called for a rational perspective, attempting to "cool down" the overheated market.
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