Hong Kong stocks have finally outperformed A-shares, gapping up at the open today and maintaining strong momentum throughout the session to close with a substantial 2.58% gain. Trading volume expanded to HKD 361.5 billion, marking the highest turnover since October of the previous year and indicating enthusiastic capital inflows. The market sentiment appears peculiar; despite unfavorable news, why the surge at this juncture? Sources indicate that the US recently briefed Israel on its preparations for potential military action against Iran. The US side stated that related preparations are expected to be completed within two weeks, with a possible "window of opportunity" for action emerging in the coming months. It seems the timeline for action is not far off. Many Middle Eastern countries are quite tense, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE reportedly refusing the US use of their airspace to strike Iran, fearing collateral damage. An Iranian official claimed real-time monitoring of the Strait of Hormuz is already in place. Separately, North Korea's Missile Administration test-fired large-caliber rocket artillery on January 27, with four shells hitting a maritime target 358.5 km from the launch site. Connecting the dots suggests potential coordinated actions in the Asia-Pacific region if Iran becomes involved. US actions against Iran would most significantly impact oil, most directly through the potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, inevitably sending oil prices soaring. CNOOC (00883), PetroChina (00857), Shanghai Petrochemical (00338), and China Oilfield Services (02883) all rose over 4%. The downside is rising oil prices significantly impact the aviation industry, as increased jet fuel costs directly hurt profits. Today, the three major airlines were sold off, with China Eastern Airlines (00670) and China Southern Airlines (01055) falling over 6%, and Air China (01057) dropping nearly 4%.
Gold, which had shown some moderation, surged again after Donald Trump stated in an interview that he is not worried about a weaker US dollar. The consequence was a further decline in the dollar on Tuesday, with the dollar index against a basket of currencies hitting a four-year low, prompting another gold frenzy. New York gold futures broke through $5,300 per ounce, with intraday gains reaching 3.5%. ZT January top pick Zhaojin Gold International (02259) surged nearly 9%, while AngloGold Ashanti (03939), Chifeng Gold (06693), and Shandong Gold (01787) all gained over 8%. It's not just gold; the entire commodities complex was lifted, especially the aluminum sector highlighted recently: the EU currently consumes 13.5 million tons of aluminum annually, but local primary aluminum production has plummeted to just 950,000 tons, creating a structural deficit of 93%. LME aluminum futures hit $3,250 per ton during the session, a high since April 2022. Aluminum Corporation of China (02600) surged nearly 13%; China Aluminum International (02068) reported new contract signings totaling RMB 46.836 billion for 2025, a 51.94% year-on-year increase. Other gainers included Nanshan Aluminum International (02610) and China Hongqiao (01378), both up over 8%. Copper was also robust, with Jiangxi Copper (00358) rising over 8% and China Molybdenum (03993) up over 5%; currently lagging is China Nonferrous Mining (01258). Uranium spot prices also rose sharply, with CGN Mining (01164) up over 11%.
Overall, cyclical sectors are quite strong. Observe the trend of Sany International (00631), pushing higher like a bulldozer every day, driven significantly by substantial incremental demand from overseas markets. Similarly, China Railway (00390) rose over 6% as a project it is building in Papua New Guinea held a commencement ceremony, marking progress in the African market. West China Cement (02233) gained over 5% following reports of a successful kiln ignition for a project in Uganda, another milestone in its African development. Texas Instruments jumped 8% after hours on Tuesday. The company's earnings provided optimistic guidance, expecting Q1 revenue to show sequential growth, reinforcing expectations of a recovery in analog chip demand. NanoSemiconductor (02676) surged nearly 11%; chipmaker Huahong Semiconductor (01347) continued its unstoppable rise, gaining over 7% to hit a new all-time high. The laggard among ZT's January picks, SMIC (00981), rose over 3%. Meta's signing of a massive $6 billion fiber optic deal with Corning further stimulated the fiber optic sector, with Changfei Optical Fiber & Cable (06869) surging over 15%.
A report indicated that several property developers are reportedly no longer required by regulators to report their "three red lines" metrics monthly, though some distressed developers must still report financial indicators like asset-liability ratios regularly to local task forces. The background is that the high-leverage model of developers has receded, making strict enforcement less necessary, implying some loosening for the property sector and potential improvements in financing. China Jinmao (00817) surged nearly 12%, while Greentown China (03900), Greentown Management Holdings (09979), and China Overseas Grand Oceans (00081) all gained over 5%. Bottom-fishing opportunities in stocks like China Resources Land (01109), Vanke (02202), and Longfor Group (00960) are worth watching. The market structure has become clear, with consumer sectors noticeably weaker, such as Mixue Group (02097) falling over 10%. Some gaming stocks performed well; Bilibili-W (09626) announced the premiere of five domestic game trailers on its platform, leading to a nearly 4% gain today. Citi issued a bullish report on Pop Mart (09992), citing survey results showing an expanding customer base, with the stock rising over 7%.
The Fed is set to announce its first interest rate decision of 2026 at 3 AM ET on Thursday. Holding rates steady is a given. The key看点 will be how Chair Powell maintains Fed independence under pressure from the Trump administration and how new members vote. Overall, the decision's tone is not expected to be overly hawkish. According to Polymarket odds, BlackRock's Rick Rieder is currently the frontrunner for the next Fed Chair nomination, with a probability around 47%. Indonesia's planned coal production cut for 2026 is providing a positive catalyst for coal stocks: exportable volume is expected to drop from 514 million tons in 2025 to approximately 390-420 million tons in 2026 (a reduction of about 100 million tons), tightening seaborne coal supply in Asia-Pacific and supporting a 5%-7% increase in thermal coal price benchmarks. Import substitution: China (where Indonesian coal accounts for about 49% of imports) and India may turn to domestic coal, Australian coal, or Russian coal, stabilizing domestic coal prices and enhancing the market share of leaders. Companies with high long-term contract ratios will have more stable profits. Key beneficiaries include L&L Energy (01277), Yankuang Energy (01171), China Shenhua (01088), China Coal Energy (01898), and Yancoal Australia (03668). Kuaishou-W (01024): Core Business Poised for Revaluation as Kling Surpasses 10 Million MAU and Achieves Subscription Revenue Growth. Kuaishou's AI product Kling surpassed 12 million monthly active users (MAU) by January 2026. As of January 20, 2026, paid users on the Kling app increased by 350% month-over-month, with average daily revenue in January approximately 30% higher than the December average. Analysis: Kling's breakthrough in MAU and subscription revenue is significant. For full-year 2025, Kling's revenue is projected to reach $140 million, far exceeding Kuaishou's initial $60 million target set early in the year. Kling's rapid MAU growth is attributed to two main factors: 1) Model Updates: In December 2025, Kuaishou launched Kling O1, claimed as the world's first unified multimodal video model, and Kling 2.6 with audio-visual synchronization capabilities, enhancing model performance and enriching the video generation portfolio. 2) Action Control Feature Garnering Attention: The launch of an action control feature in Kling 2.6, allowing video generation based on reference images and selected actions, went viral due to its ease of use and social sharing potential. By early 2026, Kling AI topped the iOS download charts for graphics & design apps in nearly 40 countries including Brazil and Russia, and became the top-grossing app in its category on iOS in South Korea and Russia. Kling AI's breakthrough in user scale and revenue demonstrates substantial monetization potential and rapid growth. Kuaishou, supported by steady core business growth and a unique community ecosystem, is enhancing its commercial potential. AI technology upgrades are further driving efficiency in advertising and e-commerce businesses. Kuaishou's core advertising and e-commerce revenue growth for 2026 and 2027 is forecast at 12% and 9% respectively, with continued AI upgrades and operational efficiency improvements expected to support margin expansion. Kuaishou's core business is poised for revaluation.
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