Recent signs have emerged of a correction in the previously strong technology and growth sectors. With sector crowding at elevated levels, the short-term market may see a need for style rebalancing. Concurrently, the industrial trend in AI computing power persists, and generally optimistic earnings reports from U.S. stocks have buoyed overseas tech sentiment, while the A-share market awaits new catalysts from corporate results.
As market volatility increases, questions arise about the sustainability of the tech rally and how to identify more cost-effective investment opportunities. The latest insights from fund managers at Great Wall Fund's "Tech+" team provide some perspective.
Key Manager Perspectives and Strategies
Chen Liangdong: Identifying opportunities from both supply and demand perspectives, focusing on two main areas: 1) Sectors with rapid demand growth, continuously exploring investment opportunities in various sub-sectors revitalized by AI-driven demand; 2) Sectors with favorable supply-demand dynamics that may see an inflection point in their business cycle or offer attractive risk-reward profiles, particularly as real estate's impact on the macroeconomy diminishes and national "anti-involution" policies take effect.
Chu Wenyu: Attention is on marginal changes within the AI thematic framework. The extreme market movements in April and May fueled sentiment swings, leading to high-level volatility in the tech sector. The market is expected to remain choppy in the near term, with risk appetite declining and trading activity concentrating in narrower circles. The strategy will continue to follow the AI thematic thread, seeking sub-sectors showing marginal positive changes. Beyond high-potential segments like optical communication and semiconductor equipment, opportunities may also exist in PCB upstream materials, passive components, power chips, and liquid cooling.
You Guoliang: The market may maintain its recent structure. In May, capital flocked to the AI industrial chain, causing weakness in other sectors and a broader market adjustment. However, given the sustained high景气度 of the AI chain and its increasing weight in major indices, the concentrated positioning is unlikely to unwind quickly, suggesting the market may persist in its current pattern in the short term. Nonetheless, with indices returning to the lower end of a trading range and other sectors having experienced significant declines, opportunities for stabilization and rebound exist. Specifically, the broader AI thematic is expected to maintain its overall upward trend. The commercial aerospace sector has corrected deeply, but industry progress continues, with anticipated key catalysts potentially materializing in Q3, offering rebound potential during any AI consolidation phase. Within the traditional defense sector, many stocks have seen their market capitalizations retreat to levels seen before the "September 24" rally, showing allocation value from a medium-to-long-term perspective, though short-term catalysts remain unclear.
Zhao Fengfei: Focus areas include AI infrastructure and semiconductors. Currently, China and the U.S. are showing a共振 acceleration in AI, with significant industrial chain pull-through effects. AI-related hardware is entering a phase of revenue and profit realization. Sectors like computing power and semiconductors represent sustained hotspots, with a recent domestic memory technology company's IPO also providing a dual narrative of capacity expansion and rising localization rates for equipment firms. Current tech opportunities are primarily seen in: 1) AI infrastructure, including computing power, storage power, and power supply, with a personal focus on domestic computing power; 2) Semiconductors: including equipment, materials, and certain design segments, supported by both localization and high utilization/price increase logics; 3) Other emerging industries: such as commercial aerospace, robotics, intelligent driving, and quantum computing, which align with industrial trends but where earnings realization requires more time and certainty is relatively lower, warranting moderate attention. Additionally, terminal AI is being monitored, with a major overseas semiconductor player's entry into AI PCs generating market anticipation. Recent better-than-expected earnings from U.S. software stocks also highlight potential rebound opportunities if concerns about "model cannibalization" ease or reverse.
Qu Shaojie: Bullish on AI computing power and large language models. Continued optimism for AI development is supported by internet companies further increasing AI capital expenditures, while their earnings also benefit from enhanced AI capabilities, creating a virtuous cycle. Future performance of U.S. tech stocks, particularly in AI computing hardware and large model software (including memory chips), is值得关注.
Yu Huan: Technology likely remains the main theme. Entering June, technology is expected to maintain its position as the market's primary theme, though volatility may increase, with capital concentration and "抱团" likely becoming more pronounced. Market attention will likely heighten on companies' Q2 short-term earnings delivery. The focus remains on high-growth景气 directions, particularly upstream industries benefiting from AI-driven price increases, midstream sectors experiencing景气 upturns due to supply-demand mismatches, and downstream industries involving AI applications or those capturing overseas超额收益 through globalization.
Han Lin: The AI hardware theme may continue to differentiate. For the June market, A-shares are expected to remain in a phase of structural行情. However, the extreme rally in electronics and communications during May has entered a phase requiring validation at high levels. The market is unlikely to simply repeat May's singular AI hardware beta rally. It is more likely to shift from "communications and electronics leading" to "continued differentiation within the AI hardware theme, while spreading to areas like domestic computing power, data center power equipment, high-end manufacturing, and undervalued recovery plays." Macro-wise, the current environment is not strongly逆风 for equity assets, but neither is it顺风 on an aggregate basis. Domestic official PMI has fallen near the boom-bust line, indicating continued demand weakness, with traditional顺周期 and property-related sectors lacking a foundation for a broad reversal. However, high-tech manufacturing, AI-related manufacturing, and some export chains show structural resilience. Overseas, AI capital expenditures continue to support global tech assets, but Fed policy remains constrained by inflation and oil price fluctuations, suggesting growth stock valuations should not assume excessive expansion. Geopolitical conflicts and commodity prices remain significant扰动 factors for June; sustained high oil prices could dampen global rate cut expectations and increase volatility for tech growth stocks. The strategy will continue monitoring AI hardware leaders with strong order visibility and盈利兑现能力, while also watching opportunities in domestic computing power, data center power equipment, liquid cooling, high-end manufacturing, and growth directions with low correlation.
Yang Weiwei: Focus on domestic computing power and semiconductor capacity expansion opportunities. Current key areas of focus include domestic computing power, military aero-engines, and semiconductor capacity expansion. Looking ahead, the fundamental story for domestic computing power is just beginning to materialize, with potential for further upside. Catalyzed by the陆续上市 of "two memory" companies and supported by solid industry fundamentals, segments related to wafer fab expansion有望 see行情震荡向上. For the aero-engine sector,等待基本面变化 remains necessary.
Liu Jiang: The market may remain generally positive. Current market characteristics include: 1) Positive sentiment with trading volumes consistently high; 2) Severe divergence, with tech/growth strong and顺周期/thematic areas weak; 3) Trading持续 concentrating in强势 assets. This overall state aligns with a持续看好 tech/growth view, but extreme divergence is not entirely rational. The倾向 is that the market will stay positive, with overall levels有望继续抬升. Tech/growth is still expected to be the main theme, while quality assets within undervalued sectors also have opportunities to be挖掘. Investment directions to consider include: 1) Infrastructure represented by computing power, where景气度 may remain high, such as optical communication, space-based computing, domestic computing chips, PCB, liquid cooling, and storage, while持续关注各种 new technology-driven opportunities. 2) New business models in the application端 driven by models and agents, such as changes in embodied intelligence scenarios like humanoid robots, autonomous driving, unmanned vehicles, and drones. 3) Strategic emerging industries and future industries highlighted in the "15th Five-Year Plan" and other potentially explosive new directions.
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