On October 23, international gold prices briefly fell below the $4,000 mark during intraday trading, with losses at one point widening to around 0.7%.
On the geopolitical front, this week's U.S.-Iran negotiations failed to make meaningful progress, with significant differences between the two sides' demands and the risk of conflict escalation remaining elevated. Meanwhile, high energy prices — with Brent crude oil at one point rising above $113 per barrel — combined with strong U.S. economic data and initial jobless claims dropping to a near five-month low last week, reinforced market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer. This raised the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, and leveraged fund liquidations also caused gold's safe-haven properties to temporarily "fail." According to institutional views, gold prices are unlikely to have sustained upward momentum in the short term, and the risk-reward ratio for speculative participation in the near to medium term is not attractive, though gold's long-term strategic allocation value remains intact.
On the daily chart: After rebounding from a previous low of 3,943 and surging to the 4,696 area, gold prices have continued to pull back with a considerable cumulative retracement. Short and medium-term moving averages are in a fully bearish alignment — the 5-day MA at 4,090, the 10-day MA at 4,122, the 60-day MA at 4,299, and the 100-day MA at 4,224 are all trending downward and acting as resistance. The Bollinger Bands (upper band 4,227 / middle band 4,137 / lower band 4,047) are opening downward, and the current price has already broken below the lower band. From the daily perspective, the downtrend that followed the earlier surge continues, with bearish forces clearly dominant, and no technical signal of a trend reversal has appeared — a classic weak-market structure.
On the 4-hour chart: The current price at 4,020 is trading below the 5-hour MA at 4,028 and the 10-hour MA at 4,064, while the 60-hour MA at 4,140 and the 100-hour MA at 4,144 are pressing down in tandem. The Bollinger Bands (upper band 4,184 / middle band 4,096 / lower band 4,008) are opening downward, with the price hovering near the lower band. The MACD indicator is running below the zero line, with bearish momentum continuing but the histogram bars showing some convergence. The 4-hour chart also maintains a bearish structure, with weak rebound momentum, reflecting a low-position weak consolidation after a sharp decline, with no effective signs of stabilization.
On the 1-hour chart: In the short term, the price has climbed above the 5-period and 10-period moving averages, showing some signs of an oversold rebound. However, the 60-hour MA at 4,088 and the 100-hour MA at 4,111 remain as overhead resistance, and the Bollinger Bands (upper band 4,076 / middle band 4,032 / lower band 3,988) are trending downward overall, with the price moving between the middle and lower bands. The 1-hour MACD shows momentum convergence at low levels with histogram bars slightly turning red, reflecting short-term repair demand after the sharp drop, but the overall picture remains weak — this is more of a rebound than a reversal.
In summary, the daily and 4-hour charts both point to a continuation of the bearish trend, while the 1-hour chart merely shows a short-term oversold rebound. Therefore, this rebound should be characterized as a technical correction within a downtrend rather than a trend reversal. Short-term support is at 3,986–3,943, with upside resistance at 4,032–4,046, and then 4,063–4,090 above that. In terms of trading strategy, selling on rallies should be the primary approach during the day, with buying on dips as a secondary strategy.
Trading suggestions: 1. On a rebound to the 4,030–4,045 resistance zone, a light short position can be attempted with a stop-loss above 4,065, targeting the 3,986 level, and if broken, looking toward 3,943.
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