UBS has released a research report analyzing several U.S. semiconductor stocks. The report details key takeaways from Texas Instruments's management meetings and re-evaluates SiTime Corp's acquisition of the timing business unit from Renesas Electronics. The analysis also connects the financial results of Alphabet and Amazon.com to trends in computing and analog chips, while providing insights on Seagate Technology PLC. Additionally, the report offers earnings previews for Analog Devices and Indie Semiconductor Inc..
Key points from the Texas Instruments management meeting indicate that the company's recent announcement to acquire Silicon Laboratories for $7.5 billion underscores its focus on core business areas, including home appliances, power, industrial, and medical equipment chips. As the world's largest analog chip manufacturer, Texas Instruments converts real-world signals into electronic data for various applications. The company's stronger-than-expected sales guidance suggests a recovery in demand from industrial clients and automotive customers. Management views investor reaction to the acquisition as neutral to slightly positive, noting the deal's small scale minimizes overall impact. They emphasized that unless industry-wide lead times extend, a significant inventory restocking cycle is unlikely, with current low lead times potentially leading to more stable growth.
Regarding SiTime's $3 billion acquisition of Renesas's timing business, UBS highlights the strategic aim to address bottlenecks in AI training and inference systems. The bank's 2028 EPS estimate for SiTime remains above $11, though uncertainties persist regarding sustained outperformance and revenue synergies, particularly in data center cross-selling opportunities estimated at $350 million long-term. Cost synergies are not a primary driver, with management planning higher R&D investment instead.
Analysis of Alphabet and Amazon.com earnings reveals capital expenditure growth exceeding expectations by approximately $110–120 billion. Alphabet's Gemini 3 model is gaining traction, with 2026 capex growth projected at 100%, up from 75% in 2025. This robust outlook benefits TPU supply chain players like Broadcom, as well as Marvell Technology and Arm. Amazon.com anticipates 2026 total capex of around $2000 billion, primarily for AWS, with cloud infrastructure spending expected to rise 60% year-over-year. Marvell Technology is seen as a key beneficiary. UBS estimates that Google Cloud Platform and AWS together account for 12–13% of Nvidia's cabinet shipments, suggesting strong upside for Nvidia if supply constraints ease.
The analog chip earnings season shows positive trends in industrial, data center, and telecom sectors, while automotive and consumer electronics face pressure. UBS notes that Q4 2025 revenues for analog firms (excluding microcontrollers) beat expectations by 0.4%, with Q1 2026 guidance 1.3% higher. Full-year 2026 forecasts were raised by 1.6%. Industrial segments showed particular strength, while automotive revenues missed expectations due to seasonal factors and regulatory impacts.
Following Western Digital's recent earnings and innovation day, UBS revised its outlook for Seagate Technology PLC, anticipating similar pricing benefits that could drive gross margins above 50%. The bank expects Seagate Technology PLC's average selling price per terabyte to increase 6% in fiscal 2026 and 9% in fiscal 2027, with peak margins reaching 57–58%. Despite raising EPS estimates, UBS maintains a cautious valuation stance.
For Analog Devices's upcoming earnings on February 18, UBS forecasts Q1 revenue of $3.17 billion and EPS of $2.39, above guidance and consensus. Industrial segment fundamentals appear solid, though automotive commentary remains soft. The bank raised its price target to $400, reiterating a Buy rating.
Indie Semiconductor Inc. is expected to report Q4 revenue near the top of its guidance at $58 million, with a loss per share of $0.07. UBS maintains a $5 price target and Neutral rating, awaiting clearer acceleration in radar business growth.
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