Abstract
Nasdaq, Inc. will report its first-quarter 2026 results on April 23, 2026 Pre-Market; this preview summarizes consensus revenue, margins, net profit dynamics, adjusted EPS, segment performance signals, and key drivers shaping the print and near-term share reaction.Market Forecast
Consensus points to steady expansion for the quarter: revenue is estimated at 1.37 billion US dollars, up 11.32% year over year; EBIT is projected at 761.97 million US dollars, up 15.42%; adjusted EPS is forecast at 0.93, up 20.87%. Forecasts for gross profit margin and net margin are not guided; the mix implies operating leverage in line with recent quarters and favorable expense discipline carrying through the start of 2026. The core operating engine shows healthy throughput and improving activity metrics: elevated derivatives participation and higher unit activity in March signal positive revenue capture for the quarter, while the development pipeline in data, indices, and surveillance continues to extend multiyear contracts. The most promising segment is Financial Technology at 498.00 million US dollars last quarter; with new platform wins and digital-asset risk solutions being deployed, year-over-year growth is expected to track at or above the company’s 11.32% revenue growth framework as cross-sell and new client additions convert into recurring revenue.Last Quarter Review
Nasdaq, Inc. delivered a solid fourth-quarter 2025: revenue was 1.39 billion US dollars (up 13.45% year over year), gross profit margin registered 100.00%, GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.52 billion US dollars, net profit margin was 37.21%, and adjusted EPS was 0.96 (up 26.32% year over year). A notable financial highlight was the improvement in profitability, as net profit rose by 22.46% quarter on quarter alongside double-digit top-line growth, indicating both steady operating leverage and expense control. Main business highlights included robust contribution from Market Services at 999.00 million US dollars, Capital Access Platforms at 572.00 million US dollars, and Financial Technology at 498.00 million US dollars, supported by stable client activity and expanding demand for workflow and surveillance solutions.Current Quarter Outlook
Market Services
Market Services remained the largest revenue contributor last quarter at 999.00 million US dollars and continues to benefit from sustained client engagement and increased trading activity. March activity data showed US equity options volume at 393 million contracts versus 327 million a year earlier, indicating approximately 20.18% year-over-year growth in contract activity for that month and a helpful tailwind into the reported period. While monthly volume does not translate one-for-one to quarterly revenue, the activity backdrop supports stable to improving capture across derivatives and equities trading, with typical seasonality partially mitigated by sustained volatility and demand for hedging products. The company’s effort to broaden product breadth—such as seeking approval for binary, yes-or-no options linked to the Nasdaq-100—adds a near-to-medium-term expansion lever that could diversify revenue sources and improve client stickiness if adopted at scale.From a monetization perspective, higher options and index-related activity generally offers attractive unit economics. The anticipated quarter’s revenue uplift of 11.32% year over year, together with the EBIT growth estimate of 15.42%, implies incremental operating leverage from the trading complex as platform throughput scales. The net effect should be a modest expansion in operating earnings per unit of activity, aided by a favorable mix of index and derivatives trading. Risks include a potential pullback in volatility, which could dampen volumes; however, the observed March acceleration provides a constructive near-term setup.
Strategically, Market Services also benefits from an expanding product roadmap that targets new customer segments and trading strategies. The proposed binary options—priced between 0.01 and 1.00 US dollars—could attract incremental retail and institutional flow seeking defined-outcome exposures. Combined with continued enhancements in market microstructure and liquidity provision, these changes position the segment to capture incremental share of wallet and help diversify revenue across different regimes of market volatility.
Financial Technology
Financial Technology posted 498.00 million US dollars in revenue last quarter and remains a focal point for recurring, contract-based growth. Recent commercial wins and partnerships indicate expanding demand for trading, surveillance, and post-trade solutions. The selection of Nasdaq’s advanced Eqlipse Trading and Market Surveillance platforms by Japan Exchange Group’s Osaka Exchange for its next-generation derivatives infrastructure underscores ongoing adoption of Nasdaq’s technology stack in global markets. Such deployments typically ramp over multi-quarter implementation cycles and then move into recurring revenue streams with attractive margins and multi-year visibility.In digital assets infrastructure and risk management, integration of Talos’ digital-asset capabilities with Nasdaq’s Calypso and Trade Surveillance platforms aims to create an integrated environment for tokenized collateral workflows and cross-market surveillance. This is designed to bridge on-chain and off-chain activities within enterprise risk systems and could broaden the addressable market as institutional clients operationalize tokenized collateral. While the revenue contribution from such integrations will be staged, the engagement pipeline suggests a steady path toward monetization as existing clients expand usage and new clients come on-board.
The segment’s growth runway also benefits from the launch of the Nasdaq Private Capital Indexes, a suite built on extensive limited partner-reported datasets. Index expansion and related data and analytics services can unlock licensing opportunities, support new benchmarking products, and enable bespoke solutions for asset owners and managers. Taken together, these developments should convert into a durable bookings backdrop and, by extension, revenue momentum that tracks at or above the company’s 11.32% revenue growth pace. The key watch items this quarter are the pace of new deal signings and incremental modules sold into existing accounts, which tend to be leading indicators for revenue growth over the next several quarters.
Capital Access Platforms
Capital Access Platforms generated 572.00 million US dollars last quarter and is positioned as a foundational pillar of subscription and workflow revenue. While quarter-to-quarter listing volumes and issuance windows can be variable, the segment’s breadth across investor relations, ESG and governance workflows, advisory solutions, and index services helps dampen cyclicality. The ongoing expansion of index families, including new indices targeting private markets, supports thematic and strategy-based product creation by asset managers, which can translate into new licensing arrangements.Across the quarter being reported, the revenue mix is likely to reflect steady subscription retention and a moderate level of upsells into existing relationships, with limited dependence on episodic underwriting cycles. In parallel, enhancements to analytics and data distribution pipelines, including private market datasets, expand the scope for cross-selling into adjacent client workflows. The measured approach to new product introductions—particularly those that align with compliance and risk reduction—supports resilient pricing and renewals. The principal sensitivities to monitor are any abrupt changes in primary issuance activity and the pace at which new index families and data feeds are incorporated into client strategies.
Key Stock Price Drivers This Quarter
The first driver is the interplay between activity levels and operating leverage. With revenue forecast to rise 11.32% year over year and EBIT projected to rise 15.42%, the market will focus on whether unit activity gains in derivatives and equities translated into proportionally higher earnings. Any commentary on April run-rate metrics will influence how investors extrapolate current conditions into the second quarter.The second driver is the trajectory of recurring technology revenues and the bookings pipeline. Evidence of continued expansions—such as technology platform adoptions by major exchanges and financial institutions, plus early traction in tokenized collateral workflows—would support the adjusted EPS trajectory, currently forecast up 20.87% year over year. Investors will parse deal backlogs, implementation progress, and attach rates for surveillance, risk, and analytics modules as indicators of multi-quarter durability.
The third driver is product innovation and commercialization cadence. New derivatives products, the rollout of private capital indices, and the evolution of digital-asset risk tooling are catalysts that can shift the revenue mix toward higher-value, higher-visibility lines. Clear timelines for launches and quantification of near-term monetization potential would be supportive for the multiple. Conversely, delays or a cautious adoption curve could temper near-term enthusiasm even if the long-term opportunity remains intact.
Analyst Opinions
Bullish opinions represent the clear majority in the collected views (100% bullish, 0% bearish based on the available institutional commentary). A recent note characterized Nasdaq as a defensive pick among exchange operators and brokers alongside select peers, citing resilience across market environments and the supportive setup into the current reporting cycle. The emphasis on diversified fee streams and visible growth vectors in technology and data adds to the constructive stance. This view aligns with the company’s forecast profile for the quarter—revenue up 11.32% year over year, EBIT up 15.42%, and adjusted EPS up 20.87%—which suggests an improving margin framework and sustained demand across core and adjacent offerings.Institutional commentary has also pointed to the durability inherent in the subscription-heavy parts of the portfolio and the potential for incremental products—such as binary options on the Nasdaq-100—to add low-capital-intensity growth avenues over time. Meanwhile, observed gains in March options activity provide a near-term validator for the Market Services backdrop. The bullish case therefore hinges on two reinforcing elements: a constructive activity environment that supports the trading complex, and secular expansion in technology and data solutions that build recurring, high-margin revenue.
In analyzing this quarter’s setup, the majority view expects Nasdaq’s revenue line to reflect both cyclical and structural supports: cyclical in the sense of favorable trading dynamics and structural in the ongoing penetration of technology platforms and index solutions. The focus for potential upside surprise lies in operating leverage—whether higher throughput and efficient cost management can drop more to EBIT and EPS than currently embedded in forecasts. Should management’s commentary outline a solid bookings pipeline, continued wins for Eqlipse platforms, and tangible progress in tokenized collateral workflows, the path to sustaining double-digit growth in adjusted EPS appears credible to bullish analysts.
That stance, in turn, reinforces the expectation that Pre-Market results on April 23, 2026 will be evaluated not only on headline beats or misses, but on the tone of commentary around activity trends entering the second quarter and the cadence of commercialization for new offerings. A confident outlook on recurring revenue momentum, coupled with signs that derivatives product innovation can lift engagement, would be consistent with the majority’s positive framing. Conversely, if activity normalizes faster than anticipated or if technology revenue conversion appears slower, it may limit near-term multiple expansion even if absolute growth remains intact. At present, however, institutional sentiment skews toward the upside case reflected in the quarter’s consensus trajectory.
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