On November 3, gold prices went through a volatile rebound session. The Asian session opened with a notable bounce, and during the midday session a short position was entered below 3920, followed by sideways trading around 3900, with the short closed out early for a small profit. The U.S. session saw a direct rally to the 3970 level, and after holding above 3930 a long position was added, which also delivered substantial gains. Gold ultimately closed at $3947, forming a bullish candlestick on the daily chart.
Tuesday (November 3) is a special day 鈥?it is U.S. midterm election voting day, and the daytime session will most likely be a grueling "wait-for-news" market. Polls suggest Democrats are poised to retake the House of Representatives, while control of the Senate remains uncertain. For gold, the impact pathway is quite tangled: if Democrats win the House, fiscal stimulus expectations would cool, which should be bearish for gold in theory; but the political gridlock itself could also boost safe-haven demand. Honestly, though, don't bet on which party wins. Historically, election results themselves have no stable or sustained directional impact on gold 鈥?what actually gets traded is how the post-election mix of fiscal, monetary, and geopolitical factors evolves. And the impact cuts both ways: if a divided Congress blocks fiscal stimulus, that would pressure gold prices in the short term; yet the uncertainty brought by political gridlock would also push some investors back to gold as an allocation. What is being traded today is whether the results can be confirmed smoothly, not party colors.
From a technical perspective, during the day gold will continue to focus on the battle around the 5-day moving average near 3970. If it breaks above that level, the risk of short-term volatility would increase; if it keeps oscillating below the 5-day line throughout the day, the technical trend would remain weak, but further declines would still need fundamental bearish catalysts. On the downside, the first area to watch is the battle around 3935; if that breaks, the main support below would be locked in at the 3900-3890 zone. In short, for today I suggest gold traders reduce long positions, wait on new orders, watch the election, and go light on positions. The real highlight this week is Friday's nonfarm payrolls. What needs to be done today is to protect yesterday's rebound profits and not use up all your ammunition before the news lands. In trading, we aim for steady, long-term gains, not to settle the outcome in one shot.
Therefore, for intraday operations I suggest: Gold: Before breaking yesterday's high of 3970, one can go short first at 3955-3960, with a stop loss at 3970 and targets at 3910-3900; if it breaks below, hold the position. If it holds above 3970, then buy on pullbacks, targeting 4020-4030.
Today's key economic data and events to watch: Tuesday, November 3, 2026 鈥?Tentative: 2026 U.S. Midterm Elections; 23:00 U.S. September JOLTs Job Openings; 23:00 U.S. September Factory Orders MoM.
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