On January 30, the three major A-share indices closed mixed, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling 0.95%, briefly dipping below the 4100-point mark before recovering it. The CPO optical module sector surged against the market trend, leading the ChiNext Index on a "deep V" rebound to close up 1.27%. A wave of limit-down declines hit gold stocks, while baijiu and property sectors were among the top decliners. The total trading volume for the two markets reached 2.84 trillion yuan for the day, with over 2,800 individual stocks declining.
The metals sector cooled rapidly, following a massive overnight shock in the precious metals market, with gold and silver prices plunging again on Friday, spot gold prices falling below $5200. Concurrently, however, UBS significantly raised its gold price target, lifting its targets for March, June, and September 2026 to $6200 per ounce, citing stronger-than-expected demand driven by increased investment. The popular Metals ETF Huabao (159876) saw its on-market price close down 9.61%, yet it attracted a net inflow of 156 million units, demonstrating strong confidence.
AI computing hardware sectors like CPO optical modules strengthened against the market trend. The ChiNext Artificial Intelligence ETF (159363) surged 2.76% to a record closing high! The latest report from market research firm Cignal AI indicates that driven by AI-powered data center and transmission network construction, the market size for 400G and above data center optical modules will approach $30 billion by 2029.
Risk-off sentiment resurfaced, with funds seeking lower-priced sectors. Agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishing gained favor. The only Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishing ETF (159275) in the entire market saw its on-market price rise over 3% intraday, closing up 1.4%. Following the recent surge in commodity prices, the market began anticipating follow-up increases in agricultural product prices. The预热 phase is also underway for the annual "No. 1 Document" related to agriculture.
As January trading concluded, the Shanghai Composite Index, after hitting a fresh 10-year high mid-month, experienced a slight pullback but ultimately held firmly above 4100 points. Sector-wise, technology and metals took turns leading the gains, with metals being the standout performer. Spot gold and silver continuously刷新ed historical highs during the month. Despite short-term corrections, the non-ferrous metals sector led all industries with a remarkable single-month gain of 22.59%.
Great Wall Securities pointed out that in the short term, market style rotation may accelerate. Considering the crowding levels across sectors, financial and consumer styles might see a rebound shortly, while maintaining a medium- to long-term bullish outlook on the dual themes of "technology + resources".
[ETF Knowledge Hotspot Review] The following focuses on the trading and fundamental aspects of the ChiNext AI, Agriculture, and Metals sectors.
[CPO Optical Modules Strengthen Against Trend, Tianfu Communication Soars 11%! ChiNext AI ETF (159363) Hits New High, Explosive 10-Week Winning Streak!] CPO optical modules and other computing power sectors strengthened against the market trend, with the ChiNext AI sector surging to a record closing high. Among constituent stocks, Zhishang Technology hit the 20% limit-up, Taichen Guang rose nearly 13%, Tianfu Communication gained nearly 11% to a record high, while Liante Technology, Xinyisheng, Guangku Technology, Zhongji Xuchuang, Changxin Bochuang, and others rose over 5%.
Regarding popular ETFs, the ChiNext Artificial Intelligence ETF (159363), which dually布局s "computing power + AI applications," closed up 2.76% on-market, hitting a record closing high. It recorded a significant daily turnover of 916 million yuan and achieved a ten-week winning streak!
Synthesizing market information, the strength in CPO optical modules may be attributed to several reasons: 1. Strong fundamental performance! According to Choice data, as of January 29, 21 A-share CPO optical module concept stocks had disclosed their 2025 performance forecasts, with 17预计ing a year-on-year increase in net profit (upper limit), accounting for over 80%. 2. Intensive AI industry catalysts! Recent密集 releases and upgrades of domestic and international AI applications and large models (e.g., Kimi, Qianwen, Wenxin 5.0, Clawdbot) continue to stimulate market expectations for AI computing infrastructure demand. 3. Clear high industry景气度! According to Lightcounting predictions, the global Ethernet optical module market will maintain rapid growth (预计ing 35% year-on-year growth in 2026), with the core driver being strong demand from AI infrastructure construction, especially the widespread application of high-speed optical modules in AI data centers and networks. Looking ahead, Great Wall Securities stated that the demand for optical modules driven by traffic explosion in data centers remains the core driver of current optical module development. With the advancement of AIGC and the rapid increase in inference-side data volume for domestic and international large models, the demand for optical module computing power will be further catalyzed significantly. As AI development progresses from computing power construction to application落地, the ChiNext Artificial Intelligence ETF (159363) and its off-market联接 funds (Class A 023407, Class C 023408), which offer one-click exposure to "computing power + AI applications," stand to benefit more directly from the growth红利 of AI technology commercialization. In terms of sector allocation, ChiNext AI allocates approximately 60% to computing power (optical module leaders + IDC leaders) and about 40% to AI applications, making it not only a core "computing power" play but also a true representative of "AI applications."
[Policy and Pandemic Risks Double Catalysts! Agriculture Sector Sees Limit-Up Rally, Only Agriculture ETF (159275) in Market Rises 3.31% Against Trend!] The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishing sector rose significantly against the market trend. The only Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishing ETF (159275) in the entire market quickly surged after opening, with its on-market price reaching an intraday high of up 3.31%, before slightly retreating to close up 1.4% by the end of the session. Among constituent stocks, seed and aquaculture sectors led the gains. By the close, Shennong Seed Industry skyrocketed 12.91%, Wanxiang Dennong, Denghai Seed Industry, Zhongshui Fisheries, and four other stocks hit the limit-up, while Longping High-tech, Quanyin High-tech, Zhongxing Junye, and others also featured among the top gainers.
On the news front, capacity reduction in China's pig farming industry has continued recently, albeit at a slowing pace. According to National Bureau of Statistics data, by the end of December 2025, the inventory of breeding sows nationwide was 39.61 million, a reduction of 1.16 million from January last year, down 2.9%. Pacific Securities预计s that under multiple pressures of "rising pandemic risk + policy pressure release," capacity reduction in China's pig industry is expected to continue: (1) Hog prices may see a short-term rebound but remain subdued medium-term. It is预计ed that after the holiday season factors fade, hog prices may weaken again; (2) Pandemic pressure: With low temperatures in January-February during winter, African Swine Fever prevention pressure remains high in northern pig farms, and risks are rising; (3) Policy pressure: Since June, relevant departments have密集ly held meetings sending clear signals about reducing capacity. It also pointed out that currently, the per-head market capitalization (based on 2025预计ed slaughter volume) for most listed breeding companies remains at the bottom of the historical range, with significant upside potential to the historical average, highlighting long-term investment value. Valuation-wise, the agriculture sector's valuation level remains relatively low, potentially presenting a good配置 opportunity. Data shows that as of the close on January 29, the price-to-book ratio of the CSI All Share Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishing Index, tracked by the only Agriculture ETF (159275), was 2.55 times, located at the 31.76% percentile over the past five years, indicating prominent medium-to-long-term配置性价比.
Essence Securities noted that from a medium-to-long-term perspective, the hog breeding industry still possesses relatively excellent core profits. Furthermore, following the rapid expansion after ASF, many companies engaged in low-quality capacity expansion, resulting in a wide variance in industry costs. Leading companies have ample room for excess profit release, and it is recommended to select high-quality companies with low costs. For one-click exposure to the pig cycle reversal, focus on the only Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishing ETF (159275) in the entire market. According to China Securities Index Co., Ltd. statistics, the Agriculture ETF (159275) passively tracks the CSI All Share Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishing Index. Its top weighted stocks include industry leaders like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group, also covering major sub-sectors such as feed, grain planting, and animal healthcare within the agriculture产业链. Off-market investors can also access the agriculture sector through the Agriculture ETF联接基金 (Class A 013471 / Class C 013472).
Data source: Wind, as of end-December 2025. Industry classification is based on Shenwan third-level industry classification.
[Metals Sector Sees Rare Limit-Down Wave, Yet Funds Flow In! Reasons Possibly Identified! Metals ETF Plunges 9%, Attracts Net Inflow of 156 Million Units!] The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a rare wave of limit-down declines. The sector's popular ETF – the Metals ETF Huabao (159876) – remained deep in negative territory throughout the day, with its on-market price探ing a low of -9.98%, ultimately closing down 9.61%. However, funds flowed in against the trend, showing a "buy-the-dip" attitude. The ETF attracted a net subscription of 156 million units for the day. Among constituent stocks, all 59 stocks declined, with Shandong Gold, Aluminum Corporation of China Limited (Chalco), and 18 others hitting limit-down. Conversely, Hunan Gold defied the trend with five consecutive limit-ups, attracting net main fund inflows of 6.893 billion yuan, topping the A-share capital attraction list.
Why did the non-ferrous metals sector plummet? ① External factors: The Fed might welcome a "more hawkish" Chair. Trump is预计ed to announce the new Fed Chair, and the market anticipates that if Kevin Warsh is elected, the liquidity feast will end, leading to profit-taking before the announcement. ② Internal factors: Regulatory cooling. Exchanges collectively raised margin requirements and price limit ranges for commodities like gold, silver, and tin, forcing highly leveraged speculative funds to close positions被动ly before the holiday/weekend. ③ Industry level: Pre-holiday restocking failed to materialize, shipments from Australian and South American lithium mines surged, and lithium carbonate prices hit limit-down. Why did funds increase positions against the trend, buying the dip? ① External factors: Kevin Warsh received explicit support from Trump, who believes he is more suitable for promoting Fed reform and rate cuts; the probability of aggressive rate hikes after he takes office is not high. ② The factors pushing up the price中枢 of non-ferrous metals have not fundamentally changed, such as the global monetary easing cycle, and the scarcity and strategic value of metals required by emerging industries like AI and military under the industrial upgrade wave. ③ The performance of metals stocks provides support; most metals stocks that have issued 2025 forecasts report预计ed positive earnings. Guosheng Securities believes that the共振 of supply-demand mismatch + macro easing + industrial upgrade means the "metals feast" is not a short-term pulse, and high profitability will last 3-5 years. While the market is bullish on the metals sector's future performance, Orient Jincheng warns that short-term caution is needed against risks of speculative profit-taking, which may increase volatility. Huatai Securities recommends a medium allocation to the metals sector, meaning a 10%-20% weighting in one's fund portfolio, to both share the upside of metals and diversify risks.
Source: Shanghai & Shenzhen Stock Exchanges, etc., as of 2026.1.30. The term "only Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishing ETF (159275) in the entire market" refers to the only ETF tracking the CSI All Share Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishing Index. Note: Fund fee rates are detailed in respective fund legal documents. * Institutional views reference sources: ① Great Wall Securities 20260128; ② Great Wall Securities 20260129; ③ Pacific Securities 20260125; ④ Essence Securities 20260125; ⑤ Guosheng Securities 20260105; ⑥ Huatai Securities 20260108. Risk提示: The ChiNext AI ETF Huabao and its联接基金 passively track the ChiNext AI Index. The Agriculture ETF and its联接基金 passively track the CSI All Share Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishing Index. The Metals ETF Huabao and its联接基金 passively track the CSI Non-ferrous Metals Index. Index constituent stocks are adjusted according to the index compilation rules. Past performance of the index does not indicate future performance. Stocks mentioned are for objective illustration as index constituents only and do not constitute recommendations or represent fund management direction. All information herein is for reference only. Investors are responsible for their investment decisions. Views, analysis, and forecasts do not constitute investment advice. Investors should read fund legal documents to understand risk-return characteristics and choose suitable products. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Fund risk ratings are provided by the manager. Investors should assess suitability based on sales机构 advice. Fund registration by the CSRC does not indicate endorsement. Investment involves risk.
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