On Thursday, April 23rd, international gold prices fluctuated and closed lower, dropping by $34.79, a decline of 0.73%. The daily candlestick chart showed a small bearish candle with a lower shadow. Overall, after repeatedly facing resistance and pulling back near the $4853 level, gold prices have gradually shifted to a weaker tone. Following consolidation around the key $4700 level, prices ultimately breached this support and are currently maintaining a weak, oscillating pattern. There is a possibility of further decline towards the next key support at $4600.
From a fundamental perspective, while a ceasefire with Iran has been extended, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues. Concurrently, a US nuclear-powered aircraft carrier is heading towards the Middle East. Although the ceasefire holds for now, the timing for new negotiations remains unclear. Having lost trust in the sincerity of US negotiations, Iran has reportedly prepared countermeasures against potential military actions by the US and its allies. Against this backdrop, Brent crude oil prices remain strong, climbing back above $100 per barrel. High oil prices are fueling inflation expectations, which may lead the Federal Reserve to maintain or tighten its monetary policy, thereby exerting downward pressure on gold.
Regarding economic data, recent US initial and continuing jobless claims figures came in higher than both previous readings and market expectations. This initially caused the US dollar to weaken and provided a brief, sharp upward move for gold prices. However, latest data indicates market expectations for Fed policy have shifted significantly, with a high probability seen for rates to remain unchanged in the near term. Consequently, the Fed's current monetary policy stance is expected to persist in the short term.
In summary, with new US-Iran negotiations seemingly distant and shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz providing strong support for oil prices, gold continues to act as a liquid asset that is susceptible to selling pressure during such periods, allowing its weak trend to persist.
Technically, the $4853 level represented a key 50% Fibonacci retracement of the move from $5600 to $4100. Throughout the month, gold prices attempted to break above this level multiple times but failed to achieve a sustained breakthrough. After nearly a week of trading, the market's center of gravity has shifted lower, resulting in a breach of the $4700 support. Although prices have temporarily stabilized around $4660 this week, the overall posture remains relatively weak, suggesting potential for further declines.
In terms of short-term indicators, the 10-day moving average is a key level for near-term price direction. After gold prices fell below this average this week, the previous weak rebound trend has transitioned into a corrective phase. Currently, the short-term 5-day and 10-day moving averages have formed a bearish crossover, with the 10-day average around $4765 now acting as strong resistance. The 5-day average, coinciding with the Bollinger Band midline around $4735-$4720, serves as the initial intraday resistance. The current assessment is that gold is in the early stages of a correction. During this decline, the lower levels around $4660-$4640 are expected to provide some support. A decisive break below the $4600 support level could lead to a rapid decline towards $4400.
Overall, as recently noted, after falling below the short-term support of the 10-day moving average, gold's trajectory has gradually turned neutral-to-weak, with corrective declines becoming the dominant theme. For the immediate session, prices are viewed as likely to oscillate within a narrow range between $4600 and $4735, with the core range to watch being $4640 to $4735.
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