During Friday's Asian trading session, international gold prices extended their strong performance, with XAU/USD briefly testing the vicinity of $4,950, refreshing the record high zone. This week, gold has continued to attract capital inflows, posting a weekly gain of over 7%, indicating a significant rise in safe-haven demand. The primary driver behind the gold price surge remains geopolitical uncertainty. Recently, escalating tensions surrounding issues related to Venezuela, Iran, and Greenland have repeatedly fermented, leading to a noticeable cooling of market risk appetite and an acceleration of capital flows into traditional safe-haven assets like gold.
Against a backdrop of rising global macroeconomic uncertainty, gold's safe-haven attributes have once again come to the fore. Concurrently, market focus on the prospects for US monetary policy continues to intensify. Investors are closely awaiting President Trump's decision on the next Federal Reserve Chair nominee to succeed incumbent Chair Powell. The market widely believes that if the new Chair's policy stance leans towards being dovish, it could further strengthen expectations for interest rate cuts within the year, thereby reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold and providing medium-term support for its price. However, the rise in gold prices also faces certain counterbalancing factors. Signs of easing have emerged in negotiations concerning the Greenland issue; Trump stated he would temporarily hold off on imposing tariffs on European countries opposing related plans and claimed that the US and NATO have reached a framework consensus on future arrangements. This statement has, to some extent, weakened part of the safe-haven premium, suggesting the possibility of short-term consolidation for gold prices. "Gold may experience a phase of consolidation, but the overall bull market structure remains solid. Expectations for rate cuts, persistent geopolitical risks, and central bank buying collectively keep the risk bias for gold prices significantly tilted upwards." — Commodity Strategist, ING Groep NV. From a technical perspective, the gold price overall remains within a strong bullish trend. Daily charts show prices consistently rising along an ascending channel, firmly operating above the medium and long-term moving average system, with the trend structure intact and no clear reversal signals yet apparent. Regarding key price levels, the $4,950 area constitutes the current interim high resistance and is also a psychological barrier. If the price can effectively break through and stabilize above this area, gold could potentially further unlock upward space, extending towards higher targets. Conversely, if short-term momentum shows signs of fading, the price may oscillate and consolidate around the high levels. On the support side, the $4,880–$4,900 range forms an important short-term support band. This area represents both the previous breakout platform and a key defensive zone for bulls. Should a technical pullback occur, as long as the price holds above this range, the overall bullish structure is likely to remain unchanged. Further support is observed around $4,800, a level corresponding to the low of the previous consolidation zone, holding significant technical meaning. Regarding momentum indicators, although some short-cycle indicators have entered overbought territory, hinting at the possibility of a short-term pullback or sideways movement to digest gains, the daily chart momentum remains in a strong zone, with no clear bearish divergence signals yet emerging. This suggests that the current pullback risk is more inclined towards a 'time for space' adjustment rather than a trend reversal. Comprehensive judgment indicates that, supported by the resonance of macro and technical factors, gold remains in a phase of strong operation at high levels, and short-term fluctuations do not alter the medium-term predominantly bullish dominant pattern.
Editor's View: This round of gold price appreciation is not driven by a single event but is the result of the combined effect of safe-haven demand, policy expectations, and structural buying. Even if some geopolitical risks ease temporarily, against the backdrop of rising Federal Reserve policy uncertainty, a global monetary environment trending towards easing, and continued central bank allocation to gold, any pullback in gold prices is more likely to be viewed as a correction rather than a change in trend. Overall, as long as macroeconomic uncertainties do not significantly subside, gold is expected to maintain its strong performance at elevated levels, with market recognition of its long-term allocation value continuing to increase.
Comments