CITIC SEC has released a research report stating that against the backdrop of surging silver prices, leading photovoltaic cell and module manufacturers are expected to accelerate the substitution of base metal pastes. This will intensify cost stratification within the industry. Combined with the ongoing upgrade in demand towards high-efficiency products, outdated capacity may face increasing pressure for accelerated elimination. Concurrently, Aiko Solar (600732.SH) has taken the lead by initiating the first major move in intellectual property "anti-involution" within the solar sector. Leading manufacturers possessing core technology and patent advantages are poised to gain prominence. CITIC SEC anticipates an acceleration of the "anti-involution" trend in the photovoltaic cell and module industry and recommends leading manufacturers in cells & modules, pastes, and equipment. The main viewpoints are as follows:
The sharp rise in silver prices is expected to hasten the large-scale adoption of base metal pastes, thereby accelerating the divergence in battery cost structures. Driven by supply-demand dynamics and financial factors, the spot price of silver has surged rapidly from approximately 8,000 yuan/kg in mid-2025 to 16,000 yuan/kg by the end of 2025, with the current price around 19,000 yuan/kg. Prices are expected to remain strong. Taking mainstream TOPCon cells as an example, it is estimated that for every 1,000 yuan/kg increase in the silver price, the corresponding silver paste cost rises by about 0.01 yuan/W. The total cost of silver paste is now nearing 0.20 yuan/W. Due to this metallization cost pressure, the substitution process for base metal pastes across different technology routes is likely to accelerate.
1) Leading HJT manufacturers, leveraging their established advantage in low-cost silver-coated copper paste (with 20%-30% silver content), are estimated to potentially reduce silver usage to below 4mg/W (over 50% lower than TOPCon). This enables a rapid cost advantage reversal at the battery level, with estimated costs potentially 0.10 yuan/W+ lower than TOPCon cells, along with a slight premium in sales. 2) For the leading BC cell manufacturer, it is anticipated that they will accelerate the large-scale introduction and substitution of copper paste in the second quarter of 2026. Based on similar paste solutions and company guidance from previous earnings communications, metallization costs could be reduced by 0.05-0.10 yuan/W. Another company is also applying copper plating technology in volume, effectively sidestepping the cost impact of the silver price surge. 3) Pressured by high silver prices and competitors accelerating copper paste adoption, leading TOPCon manufacturers are also expected to speed up the introduction of base metal pastes. The second half of 2026 is judged to be a critical period for initiating batch applications to curb rising metallization costs.
For second and third-tier cell and module manufacturers, lacking capital investment and technical积累, the adoption and substitution of base metal pastes present high barriers and are likely to proceed slowly. The cost gap with leading manufacturers (whether HJT, BC, or TOPCon) could widen to 0.10 yuan/W or even more, depending on future silver price trends. As cost stratification among manufacturers becomes more pronounced and demand continues to upgrade towards high-efficiency products, mid- and lower-tier companies with outdated technology and costs may face accelerated elimination.
Aiko Solar's patent licensing agreement with Maxeon marks the first significant move in photovoltaic intellectual property "anti-involution." Aiko Solar recently announced signing a Patent License Agreement with Maxeon, a subsidiary of TCL Zhonghuan. By paying a total patent license fee of 1.65 billion yuan in installments over the next five years, Aiko Solar obtains authorization for all BC cell and module patents, both existing and those newly added within the next five years, solely or jointly owned by Maxeon outside the United States. Combined with Aiko Solar's own existing patent portfolio in the BC field, this authorization is expected to further build a joint patent moat for both parties in BC technology, initiating the intellectual property "anti-involution." Weak intellectual property protection awareness in the domestic photovoltaic industry over recent years has been a root cause of homogenized and disorderly competition, directly leading to frequent IP litigation. The cooperation between Aiko Solar and Maxeon could serve as a model for resolving patent disputes and raising industry entry barriers within the solar sector, firing the "first shot" in intellectual property "anti-involution." Leading manufacturers with core technology and patent advantages are expected to stand out.
Risk factors include continued low-price disorderly competition in the photovoltaic industry; policy implementation falling short of expectations; slower-than-expected industry capacity rationalization; slower-than-expected adoption of base metal pastes; weaker-than-expected intellectual property protection in the photovoltaic industry; and weaker-than-expected demand for photovoltaic modules.
Investment Strategy: Amid sharply rising silver prices, leading photovoltaic cell and module manufacturers are expected to accelerate the substitution of base metal pastes, intensifying industry cost stratification. Coupled with the ongoing demand upgrade towards high-efficiency products, outdated capacity faces accelerated elimination pressure. Simultaneously, Aiko Solar has taken the lead in initiating intellectual property "anti-involution," favoring leading players with core technology and patent advantages. An acceleration of the "anti-involution" trend in the photovoltaic cell and module industry is anticipated. The recommendations are: 1) Leading cell and module manufacturers, 2) Core paste suppliers, and 3) HJT battery equipment suppliers with sustainably improving competitive advantages.
Comments