During the current pricing cycle (from 24:00 on November 24 to 24:00 on December 8, 2025), international crude oil prices have shown narrow fluctuations, with the change rate remaining negative. At 24:00 tonight, China's retail fuel price ceiling is expected to undergo its eleventh reduction this year.
According to Sublime China Information, the market saw mixed influences during this period, including European geopolitical tensions and U.S. oil inventory builds, compounded by subdued trading activity due to the Thanksgiving holiday. Crude prices remained range-bound without a clear trend. As a result, the crude oil change rate stayed negative throughout the cycle. By December 5, the 10th working day, the reference crude oil change rate stood at -1.24%.
At 24:00 on December 8, gasoline and diesel retail ceilings are projected to drop by 55 yuan per ton, translating to reductions of 0.04 yuan per liter for 92# gasoline, 0.05 yuan for 95# gasoline, and 0.05 yuan for 0# diesel. After this adjustment, consumers will see lower fuel costs. For example, filling a 50-liter tank with 92# gasoline will cost about 2 yuan less. A small passenger car driving 2,000 km monthly (8L/100km) will save roughly 3 yuan in fuel expenses over the next half-month until the next adjustment window at 24:00 on December 22. For logistics, a heavy truck covering 10,000 km monthly (38L/100km) could reduce fuel costs by around 89 yuan per vehicle before the next adjustment.
Looking ahead, beyond the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, market focus will shift to the pace of future monetary easing. A sustained weakening of the U.S. dollar may provide long-term support for crude prices, while short-term oil prices are expected to remain firm. Based on Friday’s closing crude prices, the new pricing cycle is projected to start with a positive change rate, indicating an initial upward adjustment of 75 yuan per ton. The next price adjustment window is set for 24:00 on December 22.
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