The latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics reveals that in 2025, navigating complex shifts in both domestic and international economic landscapes, the Chinese economy advanced under pressure, steering towards innovation and quality, achieving new milestones in high-quality development that signify both "quantitative leaps" and "qualitative enhancements." The increasingly prominent resilience of the Chinese economy and the vigorous growth of new quality productive forces have laid a solid foundation for the long-term positive trajectory of the capital market.
A long-term favorable economic foundation is the bedrock for the stable operation of the capital market. Various data indicators highlight "stability" as a defining characteristic of China's economy in 2025. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) surpassed the 140 trillion yuan mark for the first time, employment remained broadly stable, and goods trade reached a new record high. Overall, confronting a complex and severe situation marked by rapid changes in the external environment and increasing domestic difficulties and challenges, China implemented more proactive and effective macroeconomic policies, which not only mitigated the adverse impacts of external changes but also steadied the core of development and consolidated its foundations amidst turbulence.
The stability and inherent strength of China's economic base are the root causes for the significant enhancement of investor confidence in the long-term prospects of the capital market over the past year. From the perspective of price formation mechanisms, the core pricing mechanism of the capital market is rooted in investors' expectations for macroeconomic trends and corporate profitability; it essentially reflects the expectations and confidence of various economic entities, dynamically adjusting in the dimension of asset prices. Data shows that since 2025, the A-share market has generally maintained a trend of stabilization and improvement, with major indices steadily rising, the total market capitalization of listed companies exceeding 120 trillion yuan, and the average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reaching approximately 2 trillion yuan, indicating a noticeable recovery in investor confidence.
Simultaneously, foreign institutions are adopting an increasingly positive stance towards Chinese asset prices. Recently, several international institutions have expressed continued optimism regarding China's economic fundamentals and the performance of Chinese assets, anticipating a systematic increase in the weighting of Chinese assets within global investment portfolios. These changes corroborate the supportive role of solid macroeconomic fundamentals for the capital market.
While emphasizing "stability," the "innovative" aspect of the Chinese economy is guiding structural transformations within the capital market. Data indicates that in 2025, China's economy displayed distinct characteristics of "moving towards innovation." The value-added of large-scale high-tech manufacturing as a proportion of the total value-added of large-scale industries rose to 17.1%, the intensity of R&D expenditure reached 2.8%, an increase of 0.11 percentage points from the previous year, surpassing the average level of OECD countries for the first time. The value-added of large-scale digital product manufacturing increased by 9.3% year-on-year, with server and industrial robot production experiencing rapid growth. Overall, China's economic structure continues to adjust and optimize, with new quality productive forces continuously developing and expanding.
In tandem with China's high-quality economic development, the capital market is also undergoing structural changes. Data from the China Association of Public Companies shows that in 2025, market capitalization increased significantly in technology-driven sectors. High-tech enterprises, particularly in manufacturing, scientific research, and technical services, saw the most pronounced changes, with their total market capitalization growing by 33.3% and 32.1% respectively since the beginning of the year, highlighting an increasingly evident trend of technology firms surpassing traditional industries. This structural shift mirrors the outcomes of China's economic transformation and upgrading and indicates that the capital market is becoming an "incubator" and "accelerator" for new quality productive forces, facilitating the alignment of resource allocation with national medium- and long-term strategies.
In summary, the "stability" of China's economic fundamentals and the continuous optimization of its structure since 2025 have solidified the foundation for the long-term, stable, and positive development of the Chinese capital market. As a crucial nexus connecting "technology-industry-finance," it is essential to fully recognize the capital market's comprehensive efficacy in fostering the formation of innovation capital, facilitating industrial transformation and upgrading, improving social wealth management, and stabilizing societal expectations. In 2026, the capital market should focus on better serving the real economy and the development of new quality productive forces, persistently deepen comprehensive reforms in investment and financing, enhance institutional inclusivity, adaptability, competitiveness, and attractiveness, strive for effective qualitative improvement and reasonable quantitative growth, and actively contribute to a favorable start for the 15th Five-Year Plan period.
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