CLSA has issued a research report stating that a rapid recovery in MTR Corporation's (00066) recurring profit is unlikely in the short term. Increased costs in its Hong Kong passenger transport business are expected to offset the growth in fare revenue resulting from the rise in inbound tourists. The planned opening of the Kwu Tung Station in 2027 will bring additional depreciation expenses, putting pressure on operating profit. Although retail sales are recovering, the decline in renewal rents in the second half of last year indicates that the recovery in average rents remains limited. Profit from property development is projected to peak in 2026. MTR's current share price represents a 16% discount to the forecast net asset value of HK$38.9 for 2026, which is in line with the historical average, and implies a projected dividend yield of 4% for 2027. The firm has raised its target price from HK$27 to HK$32, deeming the current valuation reasonable, and maintains a "Hold" rating.
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