CHINA JINMAO (00817) has demonstrated resilience by adjusting its development strategy since 2023, with fundamentals steadily improving post-bottoming out. In the first half of 2025, the company achieved robust sales growth against market headwinds while actively securing prime land parcels to ensure long-term profitability, signaling continued earnings recovery.
Kaiyuan Securities forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders of RMB 1.11 billion, RMB 1.56 billion, and RMB 1.62 billion for 2025–2027, with EPS of RMB 0.08, RMB 0.12, and RMB 0.12, respectively. The current P/E ratios stand at 13.5x, 9.7x, and 9.3x. Backed by unwavering support from its Sinochem-affiliated shareholders, CHINA JINMAO has exhibited strong sales and land acquisitions despite market challenges, with clear signs of earnings recovery. The firm’s business restructuring is expected to drive profitability, prompting Kaiyuan Securities to maintain its "Buy" rating.
Key highlights from the report include:
**1. Strong Sales and Increased Land Acquisition** In H1 2025, CHINA JINMAO’s sales surged 19.6% YoY to RMB 53.4 billion, entering the top 10 in CRIC’s full-caliber sales ranking for the first time. As of mid-2025, its unsold inventory was valued at approximately RMB 320 billion, with 69% concentrated in economically advanced regions like North and East China and 88% in Tier 1–2 cities. The proportion of Tier 1 city inventory rose 9 percentage points from end-2024, reflecting further optimization.
**2. Solid Investment Properties and Steady Expansion in Property Services** The investment property segment has consistently delivered stable operations and cash flows. The company focuses on premium holdings, improving asset quality while phasing out underperforming assets to maintain a balanced portfolio.
Leveraging its state-owned enterprise platform and group synergies, the property services division continues to target Tier 1–2 cities, with 92% of managed areas in high-tier cities. Managed scale grew 11% YoY to 110 million sqm in H1 2025, with 85% of new projects in strategic cities.
**3. Stable Financials and Optimized Debt Structure** CHINA JINMAO has refined its domestic and offshore debt mix to lower financing costs. In H1 2025, average new financing costs dropped 69 bps from end-2024 to 2.70%, while foreign debt exposure fell to 21%. Development and operational loans rose to 41%. The company maintains robust financial health with smooth financing channels, a "green" status under regulatory debt caps, and successful issuances of low-coupon bonds.
**Risks:** Potential shortfalls in property policy support, liquidity risks from slower sales, and rental/occupancy declines in commercial properties due to leasing market volatility.
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