Spot gold is trading near $4,207 per ounce, while silver has hit a new all-time high of $58.95 per ounce. Market focus remains on the latest ADP employment report, which showed an unexpected decline in U.S. private-sector jobs for November, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates at next week's policy meeting.
First, analysis indicates that silver's strong performance (having more than doubled this year) has supported gold, while silver itself is being driven by supply shortages, liquidity concerns, and its inclusion in the U.S. critical minerals list. Both platinum and palladium prices have seen modest gains.
Second, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are now pricing in a nearly 90% probability of a rate cut next week. Investors are awaiting Friday's release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data—the Fed's preferred inflation gauge—for further policy clues.
Third, the flat performance of the U.S. services sector further underscores labor market weakness. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that the non-manufacturing PMI for November stood at 52.6, only slightly above October's 52.4, indicating stable service-sector activity but persistent pressures from sluggish employment and rising input costs.
Fourth, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has continued its volatile decline, retreating from a relative high of 4.1800 to touch a low of 4.1000 before rebounding. Early on December 4, it settled near 4.0749%, providing additional stimulus to gold's upward momentum.
Based on the above analysis, recent views suggest that spot gold prices are experiencing high-level volatility, with the labor market now driving Fed policy. If negative interpretations persist, more rate cuts could emerge within the next 12 months, further reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold and pushing prices higher.
For intraday trading, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended. Short-, medium-, and long-term strategies are available to premium members.
**Gold** After a steady rally to a historic high of $3,500, gold prices have remained in a consolidation phase near elevated levels for four months. The overall price remains above the MA250 moving average, signaling a clear bullish trend. Immediate resistance lies at $3,700, with support at $3,550. Intraday trading suggests a cautiously bullish outlook for a rebound.
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