Happy New Year | CSC Chief Economist Huang Wentao's New Year Message
As a new cycle begins and everything is renewed, the first rays of sunlight on New Year's Day fall upon the land of China. We bid farewell to 2025 and welcome the promising year of 2026. On behalf of China Securities Co., Ltd. Research, I extend the most sincere New Year's greetings to the investors, partners, and friends from all sectors who have long cared for and supported us!
Looking back on the past year, we have collectively experienced the trials of economic transformation and witnessed the vitality of market innovation. Each fluctuation and adjustment has given us a deeper understanding that in this rapidly changing era, only by maintaining resolve and embracing change can we stand firm in a complex environment and secure a prosperous future.
In 2025, Chinese assets underwent a comprehensive reassessment, with a significant increase in market activity and heightened investor enthusiasm. Driven by multiple reform-driven positive factors, the A-share market's total capitalization broke through the 100 trillion yuan milestone, demonstrating the robust resilience of China's economy and the vigorous dynamism of its capital markets. Many enterprises with core competitiveness have stood out in the market through technological innovation and management advantages, growing alongside their investors.
The quality and structure of the capital markets have been further optimized, their inclusivity and adaptability enhanced, and their capacity to serve the new quality productive forces and benefit the broader population strengthened. Within this framework of optimization, enhancement, and progress, we have summarized and proposed that the capital markets will experience a long-term, sustainable "New Four Bulls": the bull market driven by capital inflows, technological innovation, institutional reforms, and consumption upgrades.
As the inaugural year of the 15th Five-Year Plan period, 2026 is destined to be an extraordinary year. We will stand at a new historical starting point and continue to advance courageously along the path of high-quality development. Looking ahead to 2026, the global environment of accommodative liquidity is expected to deepen further, with multiple factors jointly driving a period of US dollar weakness. Concurrently, domestic financial market policy dividends are continuing to accumulate, the motivation for long-term investors to enter the market is strengthening, and incremental funds for the A-share market are expected to cover a broader base. Overall, the core logic underpinning a steady bull market is anticipated to persist and potentially even strengthen. We believe that in 2026, the capital markets will continue the pattern of the "New Four Bulls." Specifically, we recommend focusing on three main investment themes:
First, technological growth represents the primary market trend. Technological growth has already garnered major market consensus and is benefiting from favorable conditions on the policy, fundamental, and liquidity fronts, making it the most logical direction and the main theme of the current market cycle. New quality productive forces, a modern industrial system, self-reliance and self-improvement in science and technology, and original innovation are key focuses of the 15th Five-Year Plan, with a series of technology policies and major national science and technology missions expected to be rolled out. This includes strategic emerging industrial clusters such as new energy, new materials, aerospace, and the low-altitude economy; future industries like quantum technology, biomanufacturing, hydrogen and nuclear fusion energy, brain-computer interfaces, embodied AI, and 6G mobile communications; and key core technologies in critical areas such as integrated circuits, industrial machinery, high-end instruments, basic software, advanced materials, and biomanufacturing. These policy catalysts are favorable for valuation increases in related sectors and may attract long-term capital attention.
Simultaneously, boosting domestic demand and building a strong domestic market are crucial tasks for the 15th Five-Year Plan period and represent future investment hotspots. During this period, we will persist in closely integrating initiatives that benefit people's livelihoods and promote consumption, investing in both physical assets and human capital. This involves using new demand to guide new supply and new supply to create new demand, fostering a positive interaction between consumption and investment, supply and demand, thereby enhancing the endogenous dynamism and reliability of the domestic circulation. Attention should be paid to enterprises that have achieved significant results in the transformation and upgrading of traditional consumer sectors, as well as those with leading advantages in emerging consumer fields. These enterprises will play a vital role in expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption, injecting new momentum into economic development.
Finally, following the technology bull market, we recommend investors focus on the value reassessment of resource commodities. Market attention on resources is currently accumulating, and resource commodities have the potential to become a new hotspot in the A-share market after the technology theme, warranting investor attention. The rationale for being optimistic about rising resource prices primarily includes: global monetary easing, gold price comparisons, supply-demand gaps, and the initiation of domestic inventory replenishment cycles. In the current context of a reshaping global trade and pricing system, the importance of strategic and scarce resources is rising, while price trends are also likely to exhibit greater variation and volatility.
2026 also marks the beginning of China Securities Co., Ltd.'s third decade. Amid changes in the global macroeconomy, capital markets, and the functional positioning of securities firms, the business model of sell-side research is undergoing its own transformation. The Research and Development Department at CSC is creating differentiated research advantages through synergistic industry chain research, publishing high-quality findings, and leveraging analysts' industry backgrounds to delve deep into sectors, even within a competitive "involution" environment. This year, we established a global research team, actively implementing a global strategy and making sustained efforts in forward-looking strategic research, global asset allocation research, frontier technology revolution studies, and in-depth industry chain analysis, resulting in a number of influential research outcomes.
Looking forward, the Research and Development Department will fully leverage its think-tank function to better serve the overarching work of the Party and the state; deeply implement the "Research+" initiative to better support the business development of the group and the company; adhere to returning to the essence of research to enhance the quality of investment research services; and accelerate the development of a first-class digital and intelligent investment research platform to achieve bidirectional empowerment, both internally and externally.
The path ahead is long and winding; I will search high and low. The year 2026 is filled with both opportunities and challenges. Let us join hands and move forward together, facing the challenges and opportunities of 2026 with firmer confidence, higher morale, and a more pragmatic style of work.
Finally, we wish everyone good health, smooth work, family happiness, and all the best in the New Year!
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