Why is capital showing favoritism? Money is rotating, not just chasing rallies. On May 25, the semiconductor sector surged across the board. The STAR 50 Index (000688.SH) soared 5.88% to hit a record high. Cambricon (688256.SH) reached a historic price of 1,435 yuan. Huahong Company (688347.SH) and four other semiconductor stocks hit their daily limit-up, while 26 individual stocks reached new all-time highs. The ETF market was equally fervent, with chip and semiconductor-related ETFs dominating the top gainers' list. The GF Information Innovation ETF recorded a single-day gain of 9.63%.
However, underlying capital flows tell a more dramatic story than the price charts. Wind data shows that as of May 24, despite the sector's strong rally, over 64.869 billion yuan flowed out of ETFs in the past week. Capital exhibited significant divergence within subsectors: the semiconductor equipment segment attracted over 8 billion yuan against the trend, while the chip segment saw substantial profit-taking.
"Some institutional accounts have already achieved solid returns, even meeting their annual targets. Therefore, locking in profits and realizing gains are current considerations for them," revealed a senior institutional investment research executive in North China to the media. He noted that some proprietary trading institutions have recently chosen to realize profits on a large scale, though he has not observed signs of excessive overheating in the market yet.
The "cheers" and the "footsteps" are not in sync. On May 25, the semiconductor sector, after a brief adjustment, reignited its momentum. The STAR 50 Index surged over 6% intraday, reaching a record high of 1899.97 points. On the market, several related concept indices, including the Semiconductor Select Index (8841349.WI) and the ASIC Chip Index (8841901.WI), rose over 4.9%.
At the individual stock level, gains were widespread and sharp. Five semiconductor stocks, including Huahong Company and JCET (600584.SH), hit their daily limit-up. Cambricon rose 9.37% to a record high of 1,435 yuan. Meanwhile, SMIC (688981.SH), NAURA (002371.SZ), and 23 other semiconductor stocks also reached new all-time highs.
This performance was directly mirrored in the ETF market, with numerous chip and semiconductor ETFs firmly occupying the top spots on the gainers' list. Wind data shows that by the close, the top 50 gainers among ETFs were almost entirely dominated by hot subsectors like semiconductors, chips, and STAR Market themes, highlighting the sector's strength.
The GF Information Innovation ETF led the market with a 9.63% single-day gain. The fund's first-quarter report shows that eight of its top ten holdings were semiconductor stocks, with two being computer equipment stocks. Additionally, the ICBC Semiconductor Leaders ETF rose 7.89%, followed closely by the Southern Semiconductor ETF and the Penghua Semiconductor ETF.
Simultaneously, the ChinaAMC Chip ETF rose 7.53%, and products like the Harvest STAR Market Chip ETF gained over 7%. Furthermore, 19 STAR 50-themed ETFs averaged gains exceeding 5.8% for the day, with 14 ranking among the "top 50." The Southern STAR 50 Enhanced ETF even saw gains突破 6.5%.
However, shifting focus from price charts to fund flows reveals a less "heated" picture. Wind data shows that as of May 24, over 64.869 billion yuan had net flowed out of equity ETFs in the past week, with STAR 50-related ETFs seeing net outflows exceeding 8 billion yuan during the same period.
Analyzing the capital structure reveals divergence in tech subsectors like semiconductor equipment and chips. ETFs focused on semiconductor materials & equipment and STAR Market semiconductor materials & equipment attracted 4.843 billion yuan and 3.164 billion yuan respectively in the past week, totaling over 8 billion yuan, becoming the core allocation direction for capital.
Looking at individual products, the E Fund Semiconductor Equipment ETF continued to attract capital attention, with net inflows exceeding 1.9 billion yuan in the past week. Its circulating scale reached 8.814 billion yuan on May 22, a record high since inception. The ChinaAMC STAR Semiconductor ETF and the Guotai Semiconductor Equipment ETF saw net inflows of 1.892 billion yuan and 1.384 billion yuan respectively during the same period, both with scales exceeding 10 billion yuan.
In stark contrast, the previously high-performing chip theme sector experienced profit-taking. Chip-themed ETFs, including those tracking the STAR Chip Index, saw combined net outflows of nearly 5.5 billion yuan, with over 70% of related ETFs facing capital withdrawal in the past week. Year-to-date, net outflows from chip-themed ETFs have approached 30 billion yuan.
Wind data shows that as of May 25, the Harvest STAR Market Chip ETF gained over 39% in the past month and is up 66.7% year-to-date. However, it saw net outflows of nearly 3.2 billion yuan in the past week and over 12.3 billion yuan year-to-date, reducing its circulating shares to 12.646 billion, a near one-year low.
Entering a phase of digesting holdings. Since the beginning of the month, after the Shanghai Composite Index surged to break the 4258-point阶段性新高, it re-entered a volatile pattern. Previously leading sectors like STAR chips and semiconductor select experienced significantly increased volatility. Both indices gained over 10% in the past five trading days but also saw maximum drawdowns exceeding 7.8%.
"The recent adjustment resembles an active cooling of highly crowded trades rather than a breakdown of the medium-term logic," said Wang Li, a senior macro strategy researcher at Great Wall Fund. He believes that the earlier leading sectors saw substantial gains, resulting in high concentration of holdings and consensus expectations. Any tightening of external interest rates or realization of positive news could easily trigger profit-taking and chain reactions of selling.
In Wang Li's view, the selling pressure on the previously leading tech sectors is not due to a falsification of industry trends but rather because capital is reassessing the alignment of valuations with profit realization. Based on this, he judges that the market may transition from a rapid rebound to a phase of volatile digestion in the short term. "It's not advisable to be overly pessimistic about the index, but the importance of structural selection has significantly increased."
Jin Dalai, a macro strategy researcher at the equity research department of Golden Eagle Fund, holds a similar view. She told the media that the current market is in a stage of "high-level volatility, digesting holdings," with景气度 remaining the core theme.
She further analyzed that recent rapid, sharp declines have dampened sentiment and exacerbated structural divergence. However, the industrial景气强度 of the AI theme has not declined. Moreover, active trading and index levels suggest the environment for an upward market trend persists, implying limited room for sustained short-term declines.
"Looking ahead, the market is likely to延续 high-level volatility. After consecutive earlier rallies, the main theme may need short-term digestion of profit-taking positions, trading time for space," Jin Dalai stated. She believes the underlying demand and growth logic of the AI theme are not终结 and it may remain the dominant direction with higher visibility and certainty for medium-term performance realization. After a short-term consolidation, capital may still return to the main theme,推动 the continuation of structural行情.
Regarding the overall outlook for the A股 market, Wang Li sees support from three aspects: First, active trading indicates that增量 and存量 capital are still seeking direction. Second, the underlying tone of domestic policy remains positive, especially with clear directions in technological innovation, advanced manufacturing, modern services, and capital market reform. Third, some high-dividend and resource assets possess "defensive" value.
"Adjustments due to short-term factors are unlikely to打断 the market's震荡上行 trend and may反而 present good布局 opportunities." However, he also cautioned that the short-term拥挤度 in科技成长 sectors has not been fully digested, and high overseas interest rates continue to constrain valuations.
Focusing on the semiconductor equipment subsector, Fang Junyi, fund manager of the China Merchants Semiconductor Equipment ETF, told the media that driven by AI-fueled expansion and high景气, coupled with the expected continued advancement of存上市节奏, one could看好 the upcoming performance of the科技自主可控 sector.
In his view, the investment value of semiconductor equipment and materials is underpinned by a triple beta: strong sector beta +国产化 + broad demand. This is not脉冲式的高增长 but a significant uplift of the overall central tendency. Benefiting from strong AI demand for advanced processes and advanced memory chips, the global industry has entered a high capital expenditure expansion cycle, driving持续上行 in global semiconductor equipment and related segments.
"Due to supply chain security considerations, domestic support for leading companies in equipment, materials, and other segments has increased. Relevant companies are持续推进 product verification and business scaling," Fang Junyi stated. Considering the need for本土化供应份额 in advanced processes and advanced memory chips, the high growth of domestic wafer fabs presents a vast demand market for upstream equipment and materials.
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