JPMorgan, the Wall Street financial giant, has released its latest crude oil flow analysis and research report showing that despite ongoing shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Middle East crude oil transportation volumes have nearly recovered to pre-war levels.
Recently, U.S. officials have repeatedly stated that crude oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz are increasing, though investors' consensus estimates have been more conservative. Earlier this month, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that approximately 17 million barrels of oil transit daily, while TotalEnergies SE CEO Patrick Pouyanne observed 10 million barrels of crude and products flowing out per day.
Although Middle East oil exports are demonstrating unexpected resilience, the energy supply chain—including refined products—has yet to return to normal. JPMorgan's September 29 estimates show that Middle East crude export transportation volumes have rebounded to 17.5 million barrels per day, equivalent to 98% of pre-war levels; however, refined products such as diesel and gasoline have only recovered to 58% of pre-war levels, with combined crude and refined product transportation volumes reaching 89% of 2025 levels.
Export Arteries Flowing Again! JPMorgan: Middle East Crude Transportation Volumes Reach 98% of Pre-War Levels
The JPMorgan analyst team, including Natasha Kaneva, stated in a September 29 report: "The main arteries of Middle East oil exports are reopening." They described this as "a remarkable recovery" for a region still at war, though the recovery appears uneven.
JPMorgan stated that crude oil transportation volumes have rebounded to 17.5 million barrels per day, equivalent to 98% of pre-war levels; refined products such as diesel and gasoline stand at 3 million barrels per day, equivalent to 58% of pre-war levels. Analysts said in the research report that, measured by the 10-day average of the past five days, overall transportation volumes have reached approximately 89% of 2025 levels.
As the U.S.-Iran conflict enters its eighth month, global oil markets are closely watching the volume of crude and refined products being shipped out of the region. In addition to cargo transiting through the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia has also successfully restored approximately half of the throughput of the East-West Pipeline. This pipeline, which traverses Saudi Arabia and delivers oil to its Red Sea ports, was damaged earlier this month.
Analysts said that oil transportation volumes through the Strait of Hormuz have nearly "recovered to late-June highs of close to 13 million barrels per day, primarily driven by Saudi Arabia." "But increased transit volumes should not be mistaken for improved security conditions—this actually reflects the industry's growing ability to operate in a persistent risk environment."
The Strait of Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf with global markets. With Iran claiming control over this waterway, attacks on vessels in surrounding waters have continued for months. The United States refuses to recognize this claim and, while blockading Iranian ports, assists vessels from other countries in passing through the strait.
JPMorgan's estimates show that Middle East crude export transportation volumes have rebounded to 17.5 million barrels per day, equivalent to 98% of pre-war levels; however, refined products such as diesel and gasoline have only recovered to 58% of pre-war levels, with combined crude and refined product transportation volumes reaching 89% of 2025 levels.
This latest set of data undoubtedly reveals the changes taking place in the oil market: increased transit through the Strait of Hormuz and the restart of Saudi Arabia's alternative transportation channels are easing crude shortage pressures, but refined product supply, transportation costs, and delivery security still have notable gaps. "Being able to ship oil out" and "being able to deliver continuously, safely, and at low cost" remain two different supply states.
Oil prices are also pricing in this divergence. At 9:30 AM Beijing time on September 30, Brent crude near-month futures rose 1.11% to $103.73 per barrel after Tuesday's decline; comparing near-month futures prices at each point in time, this represents an increase of approximately 43.1% from $72.48 on February 27, the last trading day before the war. However, there is a notable price spread between the expiring November contract and the more active December contract, with the latter settling at $96.16 on September 29. Higher near-term prices reflect that immediate delivery remains tight.
Diplomatic progress is not yet sufficient to eliminate this risk premium. Qatar stated on September 29 that it is still conducting shuttle mediation to push the U.S. and Iran toward finding common ground, with restoring freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz being a priority; Trump denied having proposed relaxing sanctions or unfreezing Iranian funds in exchange for concessions on nuclear issues. Negotiations are still underway, but no arrangement sufficient to guarantee long-term normalization of commercial shipping has been formed, leaving supply recovery and escalation risks continuing to influence oil prices simultaneously.
One Pipeline, Two Straits—Oil Market Still Paying "Delivery Certainty Premium"
The repair of Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline has reopened an important channel for crude oil exports, but a distinction must be made between pipeline transportation capacity, actual throughput, and port loading volumes. Data cited by Reuters on September 29 shows that the pipeline has a transportation capacity of 7 million barrels per day, with actual throughput before the attack at approximately 5.5 million barrels per day; after restart, industry insiders and Kpler estimate current throughput at approximately 2 million and 2.65 million barrels per day respectively. Kpler expects this could increase to 3-4 million barrels per day in the coming days, with a return to pre-attack levels potentially requiring about one more month. Yanbu port has also resumed loading.
Therefore, the pipeline restart means transportation capacity is being released, not that all 7 million barrels per day has been directly restored, and certainly not that new oil extraction capacity has been added. From a transportation geography perspective, the East-West Pipeline delivers crude to Yanbu on the Red Sea coast, helping Saudi Arabia bypass the Strait of Hormuz; after loading, cargo can head north through the Suez Canal or SUMED pipeline into the Mediterranean, while southbound routes to Asia typically pass through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Bypassing Hormuz does not mean bypassing all energy transportation and long-haul shipping risks.
Current U.S. Maritime Administration warnings indicate that Houthi threats to commercial vessels in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait persist, with Saudi-affiliated vessels facing higher risks. This risk has already created real costs. Media reports on September 24, citing industry sources, stated that war risk insurance quotes for Saudi-affiliated tankers calling at Yanbu have risen to approximately 3% of vessel value, compared to less than 1% in early July; this quote system represents insurance quotations, not a unified rate at which all vessels ultimately transact.
However, an investment observation framework can be proposed from this: the crude oil/petroleum futures trading market is shifting from simply trading "how many barrels are missing" to simultaneously trading "whether these barrels can be reliably delivered." Crude oil reflow helps suppress shortage premiums, but lagging shipping recovery in refined products and other petroleum product lines, along with elevated insurance and transportation costs, may still delay the decline in end-user energy inflation.
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