Good morning. Let's start by looking at US stocks.
On the evening of November 12, all three major US stock indices opened lower collectively. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.11%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite declined 1.47%. Nvidia plunged over 13%, losing $500 billion in market value; CoreWeave tumbled more than 17.3%, Dell dropped over 8.7%, SanDisk fell 9%, SK Hynix declined 6%, Micron Technology slid 5.6%, while TSMC and Intel each dropped nearly 5%.
On the news front, that evening, Nvidia announced that its board of directors had approved Jensen Huang's resignation as the company's president, chief executive officer, and director, effective immediately. The company's current executive vice president and chief financial officer, Colette Kress, was appointed interim CEO while continuing to serve as CFO until a permanent successor is determined. The board will initiate a search process for a new CEO, considering both internal and external candidates. The Nvidia board also appointed Harvey C. Jones as the company's first board chairman. Jones previously served as CEO and executive chairman of Synopsys. Nvidia also stated that the company will continue to advance its accelerated computing and AI businesses and remain focused on serving customers, partners, developers, and shareholders.
However, the US stock decline did not last long, as all three major indices reversed from losses to gains during intraday trading. Nvidia's stock price was especially volatile, with its decline narrowing from 13% to less than 5%. By the close, all three major US indices ended lower collectively, with the Nasdaq down 0.39%, the Dow down 0.36%, and the S&P 500 down 0.35%. Nvidia fell 4.34%, shedding $182 billion in market value; declines in popular tech stocks all narrowed significantly, while Nvidia competitors Broadcom and AMD both rose over 5%. As of press time, Nasdaq, Dow, and S&P 500 futures were all higher.
Trump's Latest Remarks; Oil Prices Surge, Gold and Silver Plunge
In commodities, international oil prices rose on November 12. By the close, December-delivery light crude futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange settled at $88.74 per barrel, up 2.55%; January-delivery London Brent crude futures settled at $95.82 per barrel, up 3.3%. On the news front, according to CCTV News reports, on November 12 local time, US President Trump stated that he had asked Vice President Vance to focus all attention on the "large-scale corruption and crime" occurring in cities and states across the US run by the Democratic Party, and said the US does not need to reach a deal with Iran. Trump said those days are long gone. He claimed the US has already seized hundreds of billions of dollars of Iranian funds as well as the Strait of Hormuz.
Fed officials turned hawkish once again. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said further rate hikes may be needed to bring down inflation, noting that a growing number of businesses are considering price increases. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack reiterated that core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, rose more than expected in October. She believes that under demand pressures stemming from AI investment, interest rates need to be raised to fight inflation. Gold and silver prices fell sharply.
Iran's Sirik in the South Reportedly Attacked
According to CCTV News reports, on November 12 local time, Iran's official news agency, citing Iranian officials, reported that the Sirik area in Hormozgan Province in southern Iran was attacked by the enemy that evening, and the attack was "military in nature." However, the report did not provide further details on damage or casualties. Iranian officials have not yet issued a formal statement on the matter.
Analysts: Crude Oil Market Enters a Window of Bull-Bear Contention
Recently, the energy and chemicals sector has seen significant volatility, with related domestic futures varieties generally rising yesterday. Xiang Yiling, a senior researcher at the Research and Development Department of Xianrong Futures, believes that the broad gains in domestic energy and chemical varieties mainly reflect the valuation repair demand for the sector after crude oil prices stopped falling, while the earlier deep adjustment was the market's "advance pricing" of a cooling Middle East situation. Du Bingqin, director of energy and chemicals research at Everbright Futures, believes that international crude oil prices have recently shown a oscillating downward trend, with geopolitical risk premiums giving back and supply recovery expectations jointly weighing on oil prices. From a fundamental perspective, Du Bingqin said the core contradiction in the crude oil market is gradually shifting from supply disruption concerns triggered by geopolitical conflict to the game between actual supply recovery and demand absorption capacity. On the supply side, although navigation through the Strait of Hormuz remains restricted, as Saudi Arabia's east-west pipeline throughput increases and Middle East crude export channels are gradually adjusted, the scale of crude supply disruptions in the region has narrowed somewhat. Driven by Saudi Arabia's production increase, OPEC+ crude output continued to recover in October. On the demand side, the inhibitory effect of earlier high oil prices on end-user fuel consumption is gradually becoming apparent. The EIA monthly report forecasts that global crude oil supply will exceed consumption in the fourth quarter, and global crude oil inventories are expected to shift from continuous drawdowns to accumulation. However, global visible inventories have still not shown significant growth, and tight international tanker capacity continues to support spot prices. At the macro level, according to Xiang Yiling, the US dollar index rose to around 102.9, hitting a new high since April 2025, putting additional pressure on dollar-denominated oil prices. Analysts believe that short-term international oil prices are expected to continue a weak oscillating trend. Du Bingqin explained that, on the one hand, expectations of further military conflict between the US and Iran have somewhat cooled, leaving room for geopolitical risk premiums to continue giving back; on the other hand, Middle East crude transportation has not fully recovered, and supply-side disruption risks remain, which will limit the downside for oil prices. Looking ahead, Xiang Yiling recommends focusing on three key threads: first, whether there can be substantive progress in US-Iran contacts regarding uranium enrichment and Strait of Hormuz navigation; second, whether the EIA weekly inventory report on November 13 can confirm accumulation signals—if commercial crude inventories confirm a shift to accumulation, fundamental pressure will become more explicit; third, attention to how Fed December rate hike expectations and US dollar movements transmit to the macro sentiment level.
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