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Seats are limited, so act fast. Let us go together to the appointment with sustainability! [Click to register] On Wednesday, October 15, the decline in gold prices was not an isolated move. It was a chain reaction triggered by U.S. inflation data beating expectations and rate hike expectations rapidly heating up, which drove the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury yields higher at the same time. Gold fell to around $4,100 and touched an intraday low of $4,073. In essence, this was the market repricing the Federal Reserve's short-term interest rate path. At the same time, Federal Reserve officials struck a dovish tone, and U.S. Treasury yields pulled back in the afternoon, showing that the market has not fully concluded that the Fed will continue tightening and still retains the expectation that the Fed will remain patient with policy. In the short term, gold prices will still fluctuate repeatedly around Federal Reserve policy expectations. If subsequent economic data continue to show inflation stickiness and the probability of a rate hike keeps rising, gold prices will remain under pressure and may further test support at the 4,000 mark; conversely, if Federal Reserve officials continue to emphasize the lagging effects of policy and the resilience of the economy, and the market strengthens expectations that rates will remain unchanged in October, gold may see a technical rebound, with upside resistance in the 4,200-4,230 range. Over a longer horizon, as a core allocation asset for hedging monetary credit risk and geopolitical uncertainty, gold's one-day or several-day pullback will not change its long-term strategic value. The medium-term rhythm of the market depends mainly on whether the Federal Reserve can find a balance between curbing inflation and preventing excessive tightening. Last night's CPI data was bearish, and gold fell sharply at one point. But we have consistently emphasized that gold's downside is limited. Gold prices did not break below the previous low of 4,066. After stabilizing around 4,070, they continued to rebound, then staged a deep V-shaped reversal in the second half of the night and returned to the broad 4,080-4,180 oscillation range. The bearish sentiment brought by CPI has basically been digested. From the chart, gold has formed a short-term double-bottom pattern on the 4-hour timeframe. However, it should be noted that if there is no effective upward breakout later, the market will still maintain a wide-range oscillation pattern. Still, in the short term, gold prices have most likely already bottomed, and the market is shifting mainly toward oscillating rebounds. Although the room for this rebound may not be very large, the short-term trading approach should prioritize buying on pullbacks to lows. What can truly bring about a medium-term market turn depends on the U.S. midterm elections. Data such as CPI only disturb short-term market sentiment and can hardly reverse the medium-term trend. Trading reference: For spot gold, consider going long on a pullback to around 4,090-4,080, with protection at 4,070 (for domestic gold, consider entering at 880-882); for upside pressure, consider going short in the 4,170-4,180 range, with protection at 4,195. Sina partner platform futures account opening is safe, fast, and protected. Sina statement: This news is reprinted from a Sina partner media outlet. Sina publishes this article for the purpose of conveying more information and does not mean it agrees with or confirms its views or description. The article's content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors operate at their own risk based on this.
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