On December 15, the liquor sector staged a collective rebound. By market close, Huangtai Wine surged by the daily limit, while Jinzhao Liquor, Jiugui Liquor, Jinhu Liquor, Shuijingfang, and Kouzijiao rose over 2%. Wuliangye Yibin Co.,Ltd. gained 0.76%, and Kweichow Moutai Co.,Ltd. edged up 0.38%.
Year-end typically marks peak season for liquor consumption. However, since December, wholesale prices of premium liquors have continued to decline amid high channel inventories, creating market tension. Leading players like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye Yibin Co.,Ltd. have launched a dual-pronged "price stabilization battle" by regulating supply and optimizing distribution channels. This move aims to alleviate dealer pressure and rebuild a healthy pricing system to restore industry confidence.
Data from third-party liquor price tracker "Today's Liquor Price" shows that on December 12, the wholesale price of 500ml Feitian Moutai loose bottles fell to ¥1,485/bottle, below its suggested retail price of ¥1,499. The eighth-generation 52-degree Wuliangye (500ml) traded at ¥850/bottle, inverted against its ¥1,019/bottle ex-factory price.
Cai Xuefei, an expert at China Liquor Culture Brand Research Institute, noted that premium liquor brands establish and maintain their positioning through stable pricing systems. Price erosion risks damaging their high-end brand image.
Responding to market alarms, Kweichow Moutai's provincial dealer associations recently met to discuss 2026 channel strategies: focusing on three core products (Moutai 1935, Feitian Moutai, and Premium Moutai), reducing non-standard products like Zodiac Moutai and kilogram Moutai, and halting unfulfilled 2025 excess quotas to stabilize markets.
After this supply control news, prices rebounded. On December 15, Feitian Moutai loose bottles rose to ¥1,550/bottle (¥1,560 for original cases). Analysts say while Moutai's price recovery benefits liquor stocks short-term, prolonged supply restrictions may impact Kweichow Moutai's performance.
Meanwhile, Wuliangye Yibin Co.,Ltd. introduced channel support policies for its flagship eighth-generation 52-degree product, offering a ¥119/bottle discount from the ¥1,019 ex-factory price, effectively lowering dealer purchase prices to ¥900/bottle. With rebates, actual costs could drop to ¥800-range. The company confirmed this reflects implemented subsidy policies.
Xiao Zhuqing, liquor expert and chairman of Wuhan Jingkui Technology, noted that Wuliangye's direct price cuts relieve channel pressure from inverted pricing, enabling dealers to shift focus from subsidies to long-term value creation through consumer experience and scenario competition—returning the industry to brand-and-service-driven competition.
These "price wars" reflect deeper industry pressures. National Bureau of Statistics data shows January-October liquor output (65-degree equivalent) fell 11.5% YoY to 2.902 million kiloliters. Among A-share listed liquor firms, total Q1-Q3 revenue and net profit declined 5.90% and 6.93% YoY respectively.
Channel conflicts have intensified as e-commerce platforms disrupt traditional dealers with frequent discounting, creating offline inventory pressures. Before this year's "Double 11," multiple liquor firms including Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye Yibin Co.,Ltd. published authorized channel lists and named unauthorized sellers—a defensive move to stabilize pricing.
Xiao Zhuqing believes unauthorized channels harm pricing, brand reputation, and channel ecosystems. The crackdown aims to clear obstacles for peak season and protect legitimate dealers.
Amid challenges, positive signals emerge. Yang Ji, CITIC Securities food & beverage analyst, highlights that the 2025 Central Economic Work Conference prioritized domestic demand expansion and consumption stimulus through income growth and policy optimization, potentially benefiting liquor consumption recovery.
Some analysts note the liquor sector's valuations now sit at historical lows, presenting strong bottom-fishing opportunities.
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