The impact of the U.S.-Iran conflict on the market is expected to persist. The bond market is likely to remain volatile overall, with short-term bonds potentially offering relative support. A-shares will focus on earnings reports, with commodities, technology, and advanced manufacturing sectors expected to outperform. Both crude oil and gold are viewed neutrally, though a more optimistic medium-term outlook is held for gold.
Overseas, while U.S.-Iran geopolitical tensions have eased slightly, they remain fraught with complications. A surge in oil prices pushed up U.S. inflation in March; CPI met expectations while core CPI came in below forecasts. The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a wait-and-see stance in Q2. U.S. Treasuries, the U.S. dollar, and gold appear to have largely priced in the war risk, suggesting a potential easing of liquidity conditions.
Domestically, escalating Middle East tensions have disrupted energy supplies, leading to rapid price increases in the oil supply chain. China's March PPI rose 1.0% month-on-month, with the year-on-year PPI improving to 0.5% from -0.9% the previous month, ending a 41-month streak of negative growth. Oil prices are expected to remain high and volatile in the near term. Coupled with a low base effect from last year, both CPI and PPI are forecast to trend higher year-on-year.
Regarding market strategy, bond yields declined overall last week, led by ultra-long-term bonds. Short-term bonds have become relatively crowded amid loose liquidity, while ultra-long-term bonds are experiencing spread compression as negative factors gradually dissipate. Although the U.S.-Iran conflict has eased more than expected, oil price levels are expected to rise systematically over the long term. The bond market's focus is shifting from inflation to stagnation, potentially creating trading opportunities in long-term bonds. In the short term, uncertainty remains regarding the resolution of the U.S.-Iran conflict, suggesting attention to potential volatility from unexpected developments. The bond market is expected to be volatile overall, with short-term bonds offering relatively stronger support. A contrarian approach is advised, emphasizing the value of high-coupon assets and long-duration assets.
In A-shares, the market experienced a阶段性反弹 last week due to eased geopolitical tensions. Looking ahead, global capital markets are expected to price in event-driven catalysts from the U.S.-Iran conflict in the short term. Although the situation has shifted from "unilateral escalation" to "bounded博弈 and expectation management," significant differences in ceasefire demands and ongoing U.S. military deployments mean volatility is unlikely to decline rapidly. From an asset pricing perspective, A-shares may demonstrate more resilience compared to other assets, with market sentiment likely having bottomed and micro-liquidity remaining stable. Structurally, focus in April should be on earnings reports, with commodities, technology, and advanced manufacturing sectors poised to lead.
For Hong Kong stocks, a defensive stance is advised in the short term against overseas risks. Medium-term support for growth styles is expected from easing U.S. dollar liquidity and stabilizing domestic fundamentals.
Regarding crude oil, geopolitical shocks and heightened energy security concerns among nations suggest prices will remain high and volatile in the near term. There is caution that prolonged conflict could eventually dampen demand.
For gold, prices remain suppressed in the short term by tightening liquidity, but this may be largely priced in. In the medium term, new developments are anticipated as tensions ease and safety narratives reemerge.
(Risk Warning: Recent gold price volatility has been significant. Investors should fully understand the risks associated with gold funds and make prudent decisions based on their risk tolerance. Continued monitoring of global macroeconomic trends, central bank gold purchases, and relevant policies is advised.)
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