CGS released a research report stating that recent policies have comprehensively addressed anti-internal competition by regulating pricing behavior and phasing out outdated capacity. As solar remains a key focus for China's anti-internal competition efforts, policy support or technological advancements may accelerate supply-side consolidation, with silicon materials leading profit recovery. The industry could return to profitability by 2026, with potential signs of improvement emerging in Q2 2026.
Silver paste accounts for over 50% of non-silicon battery costs. With rising silver prices, reducing silver usage has become imperative. Technologies like silver-coated copper, electroplated copper, and copper paste will develop in parallel, forming diversified cost-reduction solutions. Currently, back-side silver-coated copper technology has been implemented, with double-sided silver-coated copper potentially launching in 2026 for further cost reductions.
Key recommendations include: (1) Leading companies with strong technological advantages in BC cells and copper paste. (2) Silicon material producers benefiting most from anti-internal competition. (3) Companies with relatively independent supply chains and prioritized solar-storage integration.
**Event Highlights:** The "2025 China Solar Industry Annual Conference," hosted by the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, was held in Xi'an on December 18, 2025. Domestic solar installations exceeded 200GW, while global installations dipped slightly by 1% to 540GW. Starting in 2026, China will shift from GDP energy intensity to GDP carbon intensity as a binding metric, benefiting renewable energy long-term.
Provincial policies under Document No. 136 are being rolled out, ensuring over 80% of incremental project electricity receives guaranteed pricing. Additional policies promoting renewable energy integration, direct green power transactions, and grid upgrades have also been introduced.
CGS expects large-scale renewable bases to dominate installations, characterized by hybrid hydro-solar-wind systems, zero-carbon industrial applications (e.g., green hydrogen/ammonia), and storage-coal power peak-shaving solutions. Short-term growth may slow in 2026 due to new electricity pricing policies, with installations projected at 230-250GW (optimistic) or 200-220GW (neutral). Long-term growth will be driven by carbon neutrality goals, cost reductions, solar-storage synergy, and grid modernization.
Globally, solar installations may decline slightly by 1% to 540GW in 2026, with structural opportunities in Asia and Africa, before returning to moderate growth in 2027.
**Anti-Internal Competition Progress:** Policies continue to emphasize curbing excessive competition. On December 12, Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng completed registration as a "polysilicon capacity consolidation platform," capping retained capacity at 1.5 million tons. Current industry capacity stands near 3 million tons, with accelerated exits expected. Post-consolidation, polysilicon prices rose ~20% to over 65,000 yuan/ton, though contracted orders remain at 51-53 yuan/kg.
Other market trends: - Wafer recovery (M10L/G12R/G12 wafers at 1.2/1.25/1.5 yuan/piece). - Battery price increases (M10L/G12R/G12 cells up to 0.3 yuan/W) due to silver costs. - Stable module prices (conventional 0.63-0.66 yuan/W, high-power 0.67-0.7 yuan/W), with subdued year-end demand.
**Tech Advancements:** BC cell adoption is growing domestically and overseas, with accelerated large-scale applications in centralized markets by 2026. Perovskite technology is transitioning from pilot to early mass production.
**Risks:** Potential policy delays, slower-than-expected tech progress, component price hikes, corporate financial stress, and geopolitical or trade uncertainties.
Comments