Former US President Donald Trump stated that the US dollar is performing well and he is not concerned about its decline; he suggested the dollar could fluctuate like a yo-yo; he does not believe the dollar has fallen too much; the dollar is returning to its appropriate level, which is reasonable; he also claimed Japan has always wanted its currency to depreciate. Influenced by these remarks, the US Dollar Index fell over 1% at one point to 95.7905, hitting a new low in nearly four years. Additionally, former President Trump announced that, given South Korea has not yet passed the "historic trade agreement," he has decided to increase tariff rates on South Korean automobiles, timber, pharmaceutical products, and other equivalent items from 15% to 25%. On the economic data front, the Conference Board reported that, affected by geopolitical tensions, high living costs, and trade wars, the US Consumer Confidence Index for January fell by 9.7 points month-on-month to 84.5, marking the lowest level since 2014.
Futures Market and Trading Volume: On 2026-01-27, the most active Shanghai gold futures contract opened at 1,145.94 yuan per gram and closed at 1,148.38 yuan per gram, representing a change of +0.44% from the previous trading day's close. The daily trading volume was 41,087 contracts, with open interest standing at 129,725 contracts. In the previous night session, the most active Shanghai gold contract opened at 1,146.80 yuan per gram and closed at 1,142.00 yuan per gram, a decrease of 0.56% compared to the previous afternoon session's close.
On 2026-01-27, the most active Shanghai silver futures contract opened at 27,300.00 yuan per kilogram and closed at 28,300.00 yuan per kilogram, a change of +4.02% from the previous trading day's close. The daily trading volume was 1,038,738 contracts, with open interest at 310,210 contracts. In the previous night session, the most active Shanghai silver contract opened at 28,601 yuan per kilogram and closed at 27,702 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 2.11% compared to the previous afternoon session's close.
US Treasury Yields and Spread Monitoring: On 2026-01-27, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.24%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year yields was 0.65%, a decrease of 0.6 basis points from the previous day.
SHFE Gold and Silver Holdings and Volume Changes: On 2026-01-27, for the Au2604 contract, long positions increased by 5,015 contracts compared to the previous day, while short positions changed by 381 contracts. The total trading volume for Shanghai gold contracts on the previous trading day was 573,180 contracts, a change of -1.08% from the day before. Regarding Shanghai silver, for the Ag2604 contract, long positions changed by -10,773 contracts, and short positions changed by -6,800 contracts. The total trading volume for silver contracts on the previous trading day was 2,534,159 contracts, a change of +6.64% from the prior day.
Precious Metals ETF Holdings Tracking: For precious metals ETFs, gold ETF holdings were 1,086.53 tonnes yesterday, unchanged from the previous trading day. Silver ETF holdings were 15,974 tonnes, a decrease of 116 tonnes from the day before.
Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking: Futures-Premium Spread: On 2026-01-27, regarding domestic premiums, the domestic gold premium was 16.39 yuan per gram, and the domestic silver premium was 863.14 yuan per kilogram. Gold-Silver Ratio: The price ratio of the most active SHFE gold and silver contracts was approximately 40.58 yesterday, a change of -3.44% from the previous trading day. The external market gold-silver ratio was 46.47, a change of -3.71% from the previous day.
Fundamentals: Shanghai Gold Exchange T+D Market Monitoring: On the previous trading day (2026-01-27), the trading volume for gold on the SGE was 109,368 kilograms, a change of +32.01% from the prior day. The trading volume for silver was 627,160 kilograms, a change of -10.69% from the day before. Gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and silver delivery volume was 30 kilograms.
Strategy Gold: Cautiously Bullish Currently, with some resurgence in market risk sentiment coupled with a weakening US Dollar Index, investment demand for gold may see a slight increase. Therefore, it is expected that gold prices will likely maintain a volatile but generally strong trend in the near term. The expected trading range for the Au2604 contract is between 1,120 yuan per gram and 1,170 yuan per gram.
Silver: Cautiously Bullish Silver experienced a slight adjustment in the night session. However, due to the rebound in risk sentiment, silver prices are expected to continue performing slightly stronger relative to gold, and the gold-silver ratio is anticipated to narrow. Silver's own price is also forecast to maintain a volatile but strong trend. The expected trading range for the Ag2604 contract is between 27,500 yuan per kilogram and 30,000 yuan per kilogram.
Arbitrage: Sell the Gold-Silver Ratio on Rallies Options: Hold Off
Risks Overseas Liquidity Risk Sustained Exit of Speculative Positions
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