After the U.S. midterm election results became clear, international gold prices rebounded sharply. On November 4, spot gold against the U.S. dollar recovered the $4,000 per ounce mark and continued to climb, returning to $4,100 per ounce on November 5. As of 15:31 on November 5, spot gold was quoted at $4,119.63 per ounce, up more than 1.4% intraday.
On October 31, gold prices briefly fell below $3,900 per ounce, hitting their lowest point of the year. As of 11:07 on November 5, 2026, gold bar prices at multiple Chinese banks and brands rose across the board, with several brands seeing increases of more than 40 yuan per gram. Taking Caibai Jewelry as an example, as of 15:32 on November 5, the daily investment base gold price published on its mini-program was 885 yuan per gram. If an investor had purchased 100 grams at the relatively low price of 840 yuan per gram on October 31, after deducting fees and other costs, they would have gained more than 2,500 yuan in less than a week.
Gold stocks rose broadly. At the close on November 5, A-share Chifeng Gold (SH600988) traded at 37.58 yuan, up more than 8%; Sichuan Gold (SZ001337) traded at 40.73 yuan, up more than 9%; Shanjin International (SZ000975), Zhaojin Gold (SZ000506), Western Gold (SH601069), Shandong Gold (SH600547), and China Gold (SH600489) all advanced. In Hong Kong stocks, as of 16:04, Zhaojin Mining (01818) traded at HK$17.88, up more than 5%; Chifeng Gold (06693) traded at HK$32.7, up more than 3.8%, while Shandong Gold (01787), Lingbao Gold (03330), Zijin Mining (02899), and China Gold International (02099) also gained.
Alongside gold's counterattack, U.S. stocks closed sharply higher on November 5 Beijing time. The S&P 500 rose 1.6% to 7,688.62; the Nasdaq gained 1.4% to 25,736.51; and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 3% to 53,356.12.
Gu Fengda, chief analyst at Guoxin Futures, said that gold regaining $4,100 per ounce reflects the simultaneous loosening of multiple forces: after the U.S. midterm vote count became clear, the market repriced around "constrained fiscal expansion," the dollar index retreated, and 10-year Treasury yields fell, easing the interest rate pressure that had weighed on gold recently. In addition, oil prices plunged on expectations of easing tensions in the Middle East, the expected stickiness of energy inflation eased somewhat, market pricing for a Federal Reserve rate hike in December declined somewhat, and the marginal weakening of real interest rate expectations loosened the grip on gold. As of 16:08 on November 5, the dollar index was at 101.410, down more than 1% from its intraday high for the year; as of 16:15 on November 5, 2-year, 10-year, and 30-year U.S. Treasury yields stood at 4.58%, 4.86%, and 5.25%, respectively, down nearly 40, 50, and 50 basis points from their respective intraday highs for the year.
Oil prices fell sharply. As of 16:20 on November 5, Brent crude was quoted at $94.08 per barrel, down nearly 20% from its intraday high for the year. CME FedWatch data showed that the market currently expects a 77.5% probability of a 25 basis point Fed rate hike in December, down from 79.9% a week earlier.
Although gold rose in the short term after this round of midterm election developments, Gu Fengda cautioned that this does not necessarily mean gold's downtrend has already reversed. If the Democratic Party effectively controls both chambers, the United States will likely enter a period of policy vacuum and internal friction over the next six months: fiscal stimulus will be difficult to implement, and the debt issue will be repeatedly dragged out. Over the medium term, this will weaken dollar credit and push down long-term real interest rate expectations, providing support for gold. But in the short term, if political uncertainty triggers another decline in risk assets, institutions may still prioritize selling gold, which has better liquidity. More critically, risks in the Middle East persist, and once oil prices fluctuate repeatedly, inflation and rate hike expectations could heat up again.
Several major international banks are bullish on gold. A research report released by Goldman Sachs on October 19 still regarded central bank demand as a structural support for gold; the Chief Investment Office of UBS Wealth Management said on October 22 that there is limited room for further declines in gold prices, and dip-buying is expected to provide support near current levels. Standard Chartered's Global Market Outlook published on November 3, 2026, for November, held that gold remains its main overweight asset. Although Standard Chartered slightly lowered its 3-month and 12-month gold price forecasts, the institution believes gold can establish a solid base above $4,000 per ounce. Rising bond yields and a stronger dollar have recently created headwinds for gold, but a weaker dollar and continued gold purchases by emerging market central banks will drive gold prices higher over the next 12 months. "The target price for gold over the next 0 to 3 months is $4,500 per ounce, and the target price over the next 6 to 12 months is $5,000 per ounce," Citi also projected on November 4.
Against the backdrop of gold price volatility, Gu Fengda advised ordinary investors not to focus excessively on single-day gains and losses, but instead to focus on the following key variables: nonfarm payrolls and core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index data, market pricing for the December Fed meeting, fund flows into gold exchange-traded funds (gold ETFs), and the continuation of central bank gold purchases. Wang Lixin, CEO of the World Gold Council's China region, also emphasized at a media sharing session on November 3 that gold investors should shift from a "trading mindset" to an "allocation mindset," not fixating on a specific price point but paying more attention to gold's long-term role, gradually bringing gold allocation in a portfolio to a certain proportion, for example 5% to 15% of total assets.
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