On January 26, market trading volume broke through 3 trillion yuan, yet the indices closed slightly lower, with sectors and individual stocks showing significant divergence; 3,771 stocks closed down. The Shanghai Composite Index only dipped slightly, supported by cyclical stocks like nonferrous metals and coal, while technology sectors such as satellites and semiconductors collectively retreated, with the ChiNext and STAR 50 indices falling nearly 1%.
21 individual stocks exhibited large sell orders exceeding 100 million yuan, concentrated in heavyweights like Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China, Ltd. and Kweichow Moutai Co.,Ltd., with Zijin Mining Group Company Limited showing a massive sell order of nearly 4.1 billion yuan at the first level. Interviewed professionals indicated that capital has not exited the market but is merely rotating from high-valuation technology growth sectors into pro-cyclical and defensive directions, completing a "high-to-low switch." Following the previous phase of staged rallies, capital divergence has intensified; the market is highly likely to digest gains through volatility and structural rotation going forward. Expectations for a Spring rally remain, with capital poised to engage in a new round of博弈 centered on earnings verification and valuation reassessment. Gold, coal, and oil sectors posted significant gains. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index edged down 0.09% to 4132.61 points, the ChiNext Index fell 0.91% to 3319.15 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index declined 0.85%. The STAR 50 and Beijing Stock Exchange 50 indices both dropped over 1%, while the CSI 300 and SSE 50 indices were slightly in the green. Trading volume across the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing exchanges expanded moderately, with daily turnover increasing by 162.7 billion yuan to 3.28 trillion yuan. Regarding leveraged funds, the balance of margin trading and securities lending in Shanghai and Shenzhen stood at 2.72 trillion yuan as of January 26.
On the market board, commercial aerospace, reducers, robotic actuators, satellite applications, and BeiDou navigation all fell sharply. Conversely, scarce resources, gold concepts, oil and gas, phosphate chemicals, and shale gas all surged significantly.
Most sectors declined, highlighting a stark divergence. The nonferrous metals sector jumped 4.57%, with a wave of limit-up stocks; petroleum and petrochemicals, and coal followed suit. Heshun Petroleum, Zhouji Oil & Gas, and Zhongman Petroleum all hit the limit-up, while sectors like agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, non-bank financials, and banks provided support.
International gold prices broke through the $5,000 per ounce mark for the first time. 22 nonferrous metal stocks surged by the daily limit, with Xiaocheng Technology hitting a "20cm" limit-up. Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Company Limited, Baiyin Nonferrous, Jin Hui Minerals Co., Ltd., Zhangyuan Tungsten Co., Ltd., Hunan Gold Corporation, Yongjie New Materials, Zhaojin Mining Industry Company Limited, Xianglu Tungsten Co., Ltd., China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co., Ltd., Xingye Silver & Tin Group Co., Ltd., Fuda Alloy Group Co., Ltd., and Zhongjin Gold Corp., Ltd. all rose by the limit.
Stimulated by the Nipah virus outbreak in India, stocks in the biological vaccine and virus prevention sectors performed well. Among them, Macklin Biological, Hygeia Biomedical, Zhijiang Biology, and Jindike hit "20cm" limit-ups; Wantai Biological Pharmacy, Zhifei Biological, CanSino Biologics, and Walvax Biotechnology all rose significantly.
The national defense and military industry sector fell over 4%, with stocks like Unilumin Technology Group Co., Ltd., Western Testing, Shaanxi Huada, Hollywog, Aerospace Nanhu, and Aerospace Huanyu all dropping more than 10%. Haige Communication, China Satellite Communications Co., Ltd., Aerospace Hi-Tech Holding Group Co., Ltd., and AECC Aviation Power Co., Ltd. all fell by the daily limit. Additionally, technology sectors like automobiles, electronics, and computers also fell over 2%, while social services, commercial retail, and real estate were among the top decliners.
The market's loss effect was pronounced, with 3,771 stocks closing lower and 40 stocks hitting the跌停 limit; 1,604 stocks closed higher, with 77 stocks hitting the涨停 limit. 18 stocks saw daily turnover exceed 10 billion yuan. Aerospace equipment stocks like Aerospace Times Electronics Co., Ltd. and China Spacesat Co., Ltd., electronic equipment manufacturing stocks like Sunway Communication Co., Ltd., semiconductor stocks like Tongfu Microelectronics Co., Ltd., and power equipment stocks like Goldwind Science & Technology Co., Ltd. fell sharply. However, precious metal stock Zijin Mining Group Company Limited, base metal stock China Molybdenum Co., Ltd., and optoelectronic device stock Ganzhao Optoelectronics rose significantly.
Notably, although some heavyweight stocks closed in positive territory late in the session, they displayed massive sell orders: Zijin Mining Group Company Limited closed up over 5%, but had a sell order of approximately 4.065 billion yuan at the first level; Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China, Ltd. was slightly up, but showed a sell order of 2.048 billion yuan; Jiangxi Copper Company Limited rose over 5%, but had a sell order of about 1.929 billion yuan. Furthermore, China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation, Shandong Gold Mining Co., Ltd., Wanhua Chemical Group Co., Ltd., and Zhichun Technology showed sell orders exceeding 500 million yuan at the first level. Stocks like Kweichow Moutai Co.,Ltd., China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd., Aluminum Corporation of China Limited, and China Yangtze Power Co., Ltd. also exhibited sell orders over 200 million yuan. The seesaw effect was evident. Zhang Pengyuan, a researcher at Paipai Network Wealth, analyzed that the slight index decline and sector fragmentation are primarily due to the amplification of capital's "high-to-low switch" and divergence between domestic and foreign funds. Coupled with the annual report preview window, capital is avoiding potential earnings pitfalls, rotating from high-valuation thematic stocks to low-valuation resource stocks and large financials. With trading volume only moderately expanding, the seesaw effect has become increasingly apparent; the market is mired in cautious博弈, lacking a clear main theme, and can only herd into betting on relatively certain directions. Liu Yan, Trading Director at Honghan Investment, stated that small and mid-cap stocks, which led gains last Friday, generally pulled back, while low-valuation cyclical and high-dividend sectors took over the bullish momentum. The trading volume breakout above 3 trillion yuan presents a typical pattern of rotational接力 and交替上攻, especially as the Shanghai Composite Index shows signs of ascending along the 5-day moving line. "Current market capital divergence has intensified, particularly nearing the Spring Festival; short-term rapid gains have triggered profit-taking, with selling pressure clearly visible on the board. However,承接 capital remains sufficient. After full turnover, the market is expected to酝酿 a new main theme," Li Zhongliang, Investment Manager at Cheese Fund, told reporters. "Sector differentiation reflects the precise flow of capital and the rapid switching of market hotspots. Capital has not left the market but is switching from high-valuation technology growth sectors to pro-cyclical and defensive directions, highlighting the market's extreme pursuit of valuation attractiveness and certainty," analyzed Chen Xingwen, Chief Strategy Officer at Heiqi Capital. He suggested the回调 in the national defense sector might stem from short-term order expectation adjustments; the surge in nonferrous metals reflects rising global resource demand, with the high景气 of new energy strengthening expectations for copper and aluminum demand. International commodity fluctuations directly impact domestic resource sectors, while the stable performance of petroleum, petrochemicals, and coal is also closely related to the supply-demand dynamics of the international energy market. A Spring rally is anticipated. Amid a combination of "cooling" policies, the A-share market has recently experienced volatile pullbacks, overall exhibiting characteristics of "support on declines and pressure on rises." With the Spring Festival approaching, how will A-shares perform next? "The A-share trend will likely maintain a volatile pattern," Chen Xingwen projected. He expects short-term profit-taking pressure, but believes overall market liquidity is ample, and the logic for a Spring rally remains intact; the volatility is essentially accumulation for the next move. "In the short term, the A-share market is highly likely to continue its volatile yet relatively strong operating pattern," Zhang Pengyuan further analyzed. The overall liquidity environment remains friendly, and expectations for pro-growth policies support risk appetite. However, after the阶段性上行 of the indices, capital divergence has increased somewhat; the market may消化 prior gains more through volatility and structural rotation. "In the short term, although regulatory policies have cooled speculative sentiment, expectations for a Spring rally persist. Capital is still actively seeking investment opportunities, overall承接 capability is strong, and the stock market maintains medium-to-high activity," said Fang Lei, Chief Strategic Investor at StarRock Investment. He believes the current period is within the annual report preview window, where trading may revolve around earnings verification and valuation reassessment, potentially accelerating sector rotation. Taking a longer-term view, the market is still in the middle stage of a bull market with divergent sector performances. As more sectors enter their earnings realization phase and liquidity logic gradually gives way to fundamentals, market style is also expected to rebalance. Choose resources or technology? While sectors showed clear冷热 contrast, trading volume returned to 3 trillion yuan, indicating capital has not exited but is merely rotating positions. Resource stocks like gold and coal soared, while technology themes like satellites, semiconductors, and communications retreated. What should investors guard against in their布局? Liu Yan suggested first looking at volume: 3 trillion yuan is the lifeblood for the bulls. On this basis, small/mid-caps and blue-chip dividend stocks轮动 upwards; in the short term, avoid overheated themes like commercial aerospace, but new quality productive forces can still be added on pullbacks. "In terms of style, small and mid-caps, as well as sub-sectors with high景气, still hold relative advantages. Heavyweight sectors need to wait for earnings realization; structural opportunities will remain the main theme," Zhang Pengyuan added. Li Zhongliang cautioned that the logic behind the rise in commodities hasn't fundamentally changed; existing positions can be maintained, but chasing highs for new positions is not advised. Furthermore, with high-tech application scenarios accelerating, areas like humanoid robots and AI are transitioning from expectation to reality and still present allocation opportunities. "Investors should abandon thematic speculation and focus on genuine growth sectors backed by industrial trends and earnings support, patiently waiting for the market's second wave of攻势 after completing the style switch," Chen Xingwen recommended adopting a strategy that balances offense and defense. On one hand, closely follow the pro-cyclical logic of "resources being king," focusing on nonferrous metals and energy sectors benefiting from global pricing and possessing defensive attributes, especially gold, silver, and oil & gas extraction, which offer both resilience and explosive potential. On the other hand, adhere to the long-term主线 of "hard technology,"布局 on dips in sufficiently corrected sub-sectors like semiconductors, AI applications, and commercial aerospace that have earnings realization capabilities. Simultaneously, allocate some low-valuation, high-dividend non-bank financial sectors as a base position to smooth out volatility.
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