On September 24, the market's only Real Estate ETF (159707) that tracks the CSI 800 Real Estate Index surged 4% intraday to reach a new annual high, with trading volume exceeding 54 million yuan.
Among constituent stocks, Shanghai Lingang Holdings Co.,Ltd. and Shanghai Zhangjiang Hi-Tech Park Development Co.,Ltd. hit their daily trading limits with the strongest performance, while China Merchants Shekou, Binjiang Group, Seazen Holdings, China Vanke A, and Quzhou Development gained over 2%.
Kaiyuan Securities noted that from January to August, national real estate development investment declined 12.9% year-over-year, with residential investment down 11.9%. However, new home transactions in 68 cities showed month-on-month and year-over-year growth, while second-hand home transactions in 20 cities increased 66% year-over-year. Land transaction area fell 43% year-over-year with declining premium rates month-on-month. Under policy support, the real estate market is moving toward stabilization, with housing prices expected to experience minor fluctuations. Stock housing acquisition and urban village renovation are expected to accelerate, improving housing supply-demand dynamics. The firm maintains an "optimistic" rating for the sector.
Caitong Securities pointed out that the decline of traditional economic drivers represented by real estate may be nearing its end. From 2022-2024, despite new home sales declining, total transaction area including second-hand properties stabilized at 1.5 billion square meters, with real estate GDP falling only 6.5%, indicating overall demand has bottomed out. The contribution of the broader real estate industry to the economy decreased from 18% in 2012-2020 to 11% in 2024, significantly reducing the sector's economic weight. As real estate completion decline narrows, the sector's drag on the economy will converge, with cyclical pressures easing.
The Real Estate ETF (159707) passively tracks the CSI 800 Real Estate Index (399965). The index's top ten weighted stocks include China Merchants Shekou, China Vanke A, Poly Developments, Shanghai Zhangjiang Hi-Tech Park Development Co.,Ltd., Hainan Meilan International Airport, Quzhou Development, Seazen Holdings, Binjiang Group, Huafa Properties, and Lujiazui.
Data sources include Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges and public information.
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