Apple Market Commentary
Market Highlights and Key Data: In futures trading, the Apple 2701 contract closed at 7,084 yuan per tonne yesterday, down 20 yuan per tonne, or 0.28%, from the previous session. In the spot market, the price of Shandong Qixia 80# first and second grade late Fuji apples stood at 3.25 yuan per jin, unchanged from the prior day, with a spot basis of AP01-584, up 20. The price of Shaanxi Luochuan 70# and above half-commodity late Fuji apples was 3.40 yuan per jin, also flat day-on-day, with a spot basis of AP01-284, up 20.
Recent market updates indicate that bag removal for late-maturing Fuji apples has begun sporadically in production areas including Shaanxi, Gansu, and Penglai in Shandong. Trading for Hongjiang apple cargoes in Shandong and Liaoning has entered its later stages, with mainstream prices remaining broadly stable and fluctuating slightly with supply volumes. In western production regions, high-quality mid-to-late season varieties are holding steady, though buyer enthusiasm remains moderate; some areas such as Tongchuan and Baishui have started trading red-striped late Fuji apples. For stored fruit, overall off-take in Shandong has improved slightly, with limited high-quality inventory remaining, and some buyers are shipping reserved fruit to established channels.
On pricing, early-maturing Fuji apples in Shaanxi Luochuan (70# and above, commodity grade) are mainly quoted at 3.5–3.8 yuan per jin, with premium lots at around 4–4.2 yuan per jin. In Shandong Zhaoyuan Biguo Market, Hongjiang apples are priced at 1.2–1.4 yuan per jin, while high-quality red fruit ranges from 2.5–3 yuan per jin. Current inventory destocking remains slow, Mid-Autumn Festival stockpiling is gradually ramping up, and early orders for the new-season late Fuji apples have begun; attention should be paid to quality performance after bag removal.
Market Analysis: Yesterday, the main Apple 2701 contract moved lower in choppy trade, recovering somewhat after hitting intraday lows, and closed at 7,084 yuan per tonne, down 57 yuan per tonne, or about 0.80%, from the settlement price. The intraday average was 7,056 yuan per tonne, with open interest at 143,600 lots. From a fundamental perspective, inventory destocking remains sluggish, though holiday stocking is providing some support to phased off-take. Trading for new-season early-maturing varieties is entering its later phase, and late Fuji apples are gradually being bag-removed and colored; quality differentiation among supplies is evident, with premium lots holding prices firm. Overall, spot markets lack clear catalysts, and short-term futures may hover at lower levels. Attention should be paid to pre-holiday stocking intensity and late Fuji quality.
Strategy: Neutral.
Risks: Weather conditions in production areas, fruit quality issues, and off-take trends in sales regions.
Red Dates Market Commentary
Market Highlights and Key Data: In futures trading, the Red Dates 2701 contract closed at 7,340 yuan per tonne yesterday, down 25 yuan per tonne, or 0.34%, from the previous session. In the spot market, the price of first-grade gray dates in Hebei stood at 6.80 yuan per kilogram, unchanged from the prior day, with a spot basis of CJ01-540, up 25.
Recent market updates indicate that the production base for the new-season red dates is stable, and as the fruit grows, its resilience to risks has strengthened, with manageable fruit drop risks. The crop is currently in the sugar-accumulation phase, requiring ongoing monitoring of rainfall and quality risks in production areas. On September 21, about 12 truckloads arrived at Cuierzhuang in Hebei, with ample market supply; reference arrival prices for extra-grade dates were 7.00–7.70 yuan per kilogram, and first-grade at 6.00–6.70 yuan per kilogram. Arrival quality varies, with transactions mainly driven by on-demand procurement. The Guangdong Ruyifang market saw about 3 truckloads arrive, predominantly Xinjiang jujubes, with reference extra-grade prices at 8.30–9.30 yuan per kilogram. After a round of stocking for the Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays, buyer enthusiasm has waned. With continued arrivals in sales regions and weakening demand approaching the holidays, spot prices are expected to remain stable in the near term.
Market Analysis: Yesterday, the main Red Dates 2701 contract fell in choppy trade, retreating after an initial rally, and closed at 7,340 yuan per tonne, down 35 yuan per tonne, or about 0.48%, from the settlement price. The intraday average was 7,358 yuan per tonne, with open interest at 233,500 lots. From a fundamental perspective, the growth of the new-season red dates is broadly stable, with no widespread production-cut expectations forming. Arrivals in sales regions continue, spot supply is relatively ample, and downstream purchasing remains largely on-demand. Holiday stocking and cooler weather provide some support to consumption, but sustainability remains to be seen. Overall, the loose supply-demand pattern remains unchanged, and futures are likely to stay rangebound in the short term. Key focus areas are production-area weather, pre-holiday stocking, and new-season procurement pace.
Strategy: Neutral.
Risks: Weather disruptions in production areas, market arrivals, and inventory digestion conditions.
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