Tesla stock fell 4% in morning trading on Monday. Mizuho lowered the firm’s price target on Tesla to $430 from $515 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares.
The firm estimates Tesla’s February sales in its key regions of the U.S., European Union and China significantly underperformed the market, with the U.S. down 2% year-over-year, China down 49%, and Germany down 76%.
Tesla’s sales “woes” are the result of a deterioration in geopolitics, brand perception, share loss due to stronger competition, and softer than expected demand for the Model Y refresh, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
The firm attributes Tesla’s sales decline to various factors, including geopolitical tensions, waning brand perception in the U.S. and EU, increased competition in China, and lackluster demand for the refreshed Model Y. As a result, Mizuho has trimmed its delivery estimates for Tesla, projecting 1.8 million deliveries in 2025 and 2.3 million in 2026, down from the earlier forecasts of 2.3 million and 2.9 million, respectively. These updated estimates fall below the consensus forecasts of 2.0 million for 2025 and 2.3 million for 2026.
Despite the near-term challenges, Mizuho continues to view Tesla as a leading force in the EV and autonomous vehicle (AV) markets. The firm’s analysis suggests that Tesla’s current difficulties are tied to specific temporal and market conditions rather than fundamental issues with the company’s long-term growth trajectory.
Furthermore, Canadians in several cities, including Ottawa and Vancouver and have joined a series of “Tesla Takedown” protests to denounce CEO Elon Musk and his role advising U.S. President Donald Trump.
About two dozen Metro Vancouver residents gathered outside a Tesla dealership in Surrey, B.C., on Sunday, the day after a similar protest in Vancouver, holding signs with messages including “elbows up,” “Elon be-gone” and “democracy dies in apathy.”
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