Google: Systematic Volatility Created Idiosyncratic Buying Opportunities

seekingalpha2022-03-11

Google: Systematic Volatility Created Idiosyncratic Buying OpportunitiesMar. 10, 2022 9:53 PM ETAlphabet Inc. (GOOG),GOOGLAAPL,AMZN,DIS,FB,NFLX,SNAP6 Comments7 LikesSummarySystematic volatility has ...

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Comments

koolgal
2022-03-14
koolgal
With the stock split ahead, it is a great time to buy Google on dip whenever it happens. I shall be monitoring closely. 🤔
CL777
2022-03-12
CL777
Best stock to own
muiee
2022-03-12
muiee
Quite convincing thesis to invest in ‌$Alphabet(GOOG)$‌Good read!
GANCL
2022-03-12
GANCL
For long term investment
AricLo
2022-03-11
AricLo
Thanks
LimYH
2022-03-11
LimYH
Great

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(GOOG),GOOGLAAPL,AMZN,DIS,FB,NFLX,SNAP6 Comments7 LikesSummarySystematic volatility has ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4494679-google-systematic-volatility-idiosyncratic-buying-opportunities\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"GOOG","symbol_name":"谷歌","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4494679-google-systematic-volatility-idiosyncratic-buying-opportunities","article_id":"1180965441","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180965441","pubTimestamp":1647000574,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"lsy1638401102509","name":"seekingalpha"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Google: Systematic Volatility Created Idiosyncratic Buying OpportunitiesMar. 10, 2022 9:53 PM ETAlph","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"GOOG":"谷歌","GOOGL":"谷歌A"},"translate_title":"谷歌：系统性波动创造了独特的买入机会","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"GOOG":0.9,"GOOGL":0.9},"content_text":"Google: Systematic Volatility Created Idiosyncratic Buying OpportunitiesMar. 10, 2022 9:53 PM ETAlphabet Inc. (GOOG),GOOGLAAPL,AMZN,DIS,FB,NFLX,SNAP6 Comments7 LikesSummarySystematic volatility has created buying opportunities for Alphabet in my opinion.I believe the 20-1 split and Apple IDFA changes will provide Alphabet with short-term price and earnings catalysts.In my opinion, Google Search will maintain high free cash flow levels potentially supporting GCP and Other Bets.My free cash flow forecasts through 2026 covers 33% of market capitalization at current levels.JHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesThesisWhile Google Search and Android continue to hold the majority in their respective market shares globally, I believe the iron-clad service segment remains healthy, supporting fast top-line growth and high levels of free cash flow. Associal media shifts to being more video-basedvia Reels (FB) and TikTok, YouTube continues to show the resilience of its business model as demand is being met with a proven monetization strategy, in my opinion. Google Services ads may experience short-term tailwinds as new inefficiencies in social media advertising caused by Apple's (AAPL) IDFA laws could push marketers to their platforms.I believe the potential for the Services segment to increase operating leverage and produce high free cash flow will support GCP and Other Bets' runway to profitability. This may support growing returns on invested capital [ROIC] into the future.While not a factor in my core Alphabet(NASDAQ:GOOG)(GOOGL) thesis, I do believe the 20-1 stock split will also provide short-term tailwinds for the stock.BackgroundAlphabet is a collection of businesses broken down in the company's filings by Google (Google Services & Google Cloud) and Other Bets:MediumSource:MediumThe majority of Alphabet sales are generated through performance and brand advertisements that appear on Google Search & other properties. Google Cloud generates revenue from GCP through infrastructure, platform, and other services while Workspace generates revenues from cloud-based collaboration tools for enterprises (Gmail, Docs, Drive, Calendar, and Meet). Other Bets generates revenue from the portfolio of emerging businesses in the early stages of commercialization.GOOG 10-KSource: GOOG10-KThesis SupportGoogle Search MoatGoogle Services include ads, Android, Chrome, hardware, Gmail, Google Drive, Google Maps, Google Photos, Google Play, Search, and YouTube, with the crown jewel being Google Search, in my opinion. I believe Google Search is a true media phenomenon. Not only does Google hold nearly all of the global search engine market share, but it is also a defined verb in the Merriam-Webster dictionary, showing the true impact it made on society:google [verb]: to use the Googlesearch engineto obtain information about (someone or something) on the World Wide WebWorldwide Search Engine Market Share Across All Platforms(statcounter)Source:StatCounterWhile many refer to online searching as \"Googling,\" I also believe consumer stickiness is represented through Google's maintained level ofelevatedmarket share while keeping traffic acquisition costs [TAC]relatively stable. Through what I believe is a sticky user base that makes up their dominating market share, Google Search has immense advertising pricing power in my opinion as marketers aim to reach as many viewers as possible.Another reason Google Search has remained the dominant search engine is because of the mobile market. Not only does Android (an Alphabet subsidiary) control70%of the mobile OS market, but they also pay Apple (25%of mobile OS market) directly to be the default search engine on iOS as well. While the$15 billion sumGoogle paid Apple makes up a significant portion of 2021 TAC, mobile usage was theprimary driver of service monetizationgrowth last year as mentioned in Alphabet's 10-K. While I do believe this relationship with Apple poses a potential risk to Google (I cover this in the 'Risks' section), it also opens them up to a unique short-term opportunity.Apple iOS 14 OpportunityAs a part of theiOS 14 updatereleased last year, Apple gave users the ability to block advertiser identifiers [IDFA] at the app level, meaning applications (like Facebook & Instagram (FB) and Snapchat (SNAP)) are required to ask iOS users to collect data. I believe this is a significant headwind for social media companies as ad placements potentially become significantly less efficient with only~26% of global usersallowing apps to track them after iOS 14 was released. I believe social media headwinds present opportunities as marketers potentially shift from social media brand awareness-driven advertisements to Google's specified AdWords pull strategy. Understandably, businesses advertising on social platforms may not have the same success as Google ads but I figured the potential catalyst was worth mentioning.I also find it important to note while these IDFA changes are hurting social media ad algorithms and the businesses utilizing them, I believe it's in Apple's best interest to support Google's advertising business. This is because Apple was able to generate~$15 billionin operating income in 2021 through its charges to Google to be the default search engine. This number is mind-boggling, representing~14% of AAPL's operating incomein 2021 and I believe this can continue if their strategic partnership with Google carries on. In my opinion, this theory has already been partially represented in stock moves since the IDFA changes were announced on April 21, 2021:Created By AuthorCreated By AuthorSource: Created By Author Using Data FromKoyfinYouTubeRelative to competition, I also believe Alphabet holds competitive advantages in video monetization. While Facebook is trying toactively competewith TikTok's exponentially growing market share across social platforms, I believe YouTube is still in a realm of its own. The short video platform has grown immensely in popularity shown in TikTok's rapid user growth since 2018:Business of AppsSource:Business of AppsEven with over 1 billion monthly active users [MAU], TikTok only generated$4.6 billion in 2021, an ARPU of $4.6. Facebook is actively working tobetter monetize the reels platformand increase that ARPU number. I believe monetizing short video is difficult because of how user-friendly the platforms are. From my experience, a TikTok or reels user can easily scroll past ads and choose to almost immediately skip.YouTube on the other hand dominates longer form creator-based videos and monetizes video much more efficiently, in my opinion. I believe these monetization efforts are clearly seen in YouTube's impressive growth since being acquired in 2006. Below is a chart comparing YouTube's ad revenue (not including YouTube subscriptions) to Netflix's(NASDAQ:NFLX)total revenues:GOOG NFLX 10-KsSource: GOOG, NFLX 10-KsWhen comparing YouTube to Netflix, Disney (DIS), Amazon (AMZN), and other long-form video content producers, I believe YouTube's competitive advantage is significant. This is because the content is substantially cheaper as it is creator-based, it's free to use for consumers, and their monetization ability via advertisements is highly successful, in my opinion.Alphabet acquired YouTube for$1.65 billion in 2006when the business was doing approximately$15 million in revenuesin the trailing twelve months. Today, YouTube has over2 billion users, over30 million premium subscribers, and generated$28.85 billionin ad revenue in 2021. In my opinion, this acquisition played out perfectly and could be an excellent proxy for future bets paying off for Alphabet in the future.Fueling Other BetsThose future bets are currently reported as 'Other Bets' in Alphabet filings and make up a minority portion of total revenues. This Alphabet segment includes companies like Calico, Nest, Verily, and Waymo. Even though other bets are currently an immaterial portion of total revenues (0.29% in 2021), a company similar to YouTube (which grew revenues by192,200% in 16 years) could provide immense earnings power for Alphabet in the future.Alongside Alphabet's current portfolio, they have~$140 billionin cash sitting on the sidelines that management can utilize for future acquisitions.20-1 Stock SplitOn 7/15/2022, Alphabet shareholders willreceive 19 additional sharesand the price of Alphabet's stock will bedivided by 20. I want to reiterate the fact the stock split announced on 2/1/2022 provides notrue economic valueto Alphabet shareholders or the company, but short-term tailwinds may come for the stock. According to Bank of America, stocks that split typically outperform the S&P 500 over the next twelve months by 16% (25% vs. 9%). Because Alphabet's stock currently trades at $2,650 at the time of writing this article, I believe the momentum potentially created by making the stock (and options) more affordable to investors could create short-term catalysts.FinancialsBelow I've included Alphabet's cap table accompanied by my P&L model highlights, free cash flow forecasts, return on invested capital [ROIC] forecasts, a discounted cash flow [DCF] analysis, price targets, and a tactical risk/reward table:Created By AuthorCreated By AuthorCreated By AuthorCreated By AuthorCreated By AuthorSource: Created By Author Using Data From $GOOGL FilingsRisksTraffic Acquisition Costs & RelationshipsWhile Google Search actively holds the majority global search market share, it doesn't go without traffic acquisition costs. In 2021, Google's total TAC was46.6 billion, ~31% of Search revenues. Also in 2021, it was estimated that Google paid Apple 15 billionto remain the default search engine on Safari (Apple's default internet browser). While 1/3 of Google's TAC went to Apple last year, it supplemented their dominance in mobile search engine market share.Mobile Search Engine Market Share Worldwide(statcounter)Source:StatCounterThe risk I see is the pricing power Apple has over Google regarding TAC. I believe the relationship with Google Search makes the most sense for Apple but it doesn't mean they won't continue to make Google pay top dollar to remain the default search engine potentially eating at Google Search margins.RegulationBecause of Alphabet's monopolistic structure, it's an easy target for politicians. The Department of Justice [DOJ] regularly sues Google for antitrust issues, which has resulted in fines that I believe are meaningless to Alphabet's long-term results. With the information the company has access to and the dominance it holds over global search, I don't believe government regulation dissipates. I believe a mitigant to regulatory risks is the fact that if governments intervene too much in Google's advertising business, it will ripple through and hurt small businesses even more. It's also my opinion that in the worst-case Alphabet would be forced to split up and in that instance, investors would have the ability to own individual assets like YouTube which have the potential to deliver even higher growth rates than Alphabet as a whole.SummaryAlphabet is a company I have very high conviction in over the long term. I believe they have one of the greatest business models that exist with Google Search which in my opinion generates ample amounts of free cash flow that may support Other Bets in the company's portfolio. I believe Alphabet has an extremely large moat and is a vital part of our daily lives.Systematic volatility has attributed to Alphabet's recent decline and at current levels, I believe represents attractive buying opportunities. My DCF shows that Alphabet is currently trading at over a 50% discount to fair value (using what I think is a conservative terminal value multiple of 22.8x) and my 5-year base-case price target points to a 17.2% CAGR in stock price until 2026. Without accounting for any significant growth (<$78 million in top-line) in the Other Bets segment, I project Alphabet's free cash flow will cover 33% of the current market cap over the next 5 years as well.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9036445362,"gmtCreate":1647209940117,"gmtModify":1676534202038,"author":{"id":"3559581955535845","authorId":"3559581955535845","authorIdStr":"3559581955535845","name":"koolgal","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05274d88ffc0434623e57350c52c70a","vip":2,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a8758340a08196056f8bc1e54805193","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3559581955535845"},"htmlText":"With the stock split ahead, it is a great time to buy Google on dip whenever it happens.&nbsp; I shall be monitoring closely. 🤔","listText":"With the stock split ahead, it is a great time to buy Google on dip whenever it happens.&nbsp; I shall be monitoring closely. 🤔","text":"With the stock split ahead, it is a great time to buy Google on dip whenever it happens. I shall be monitoring closely. 🤔","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":26,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9036445362","repostId":1180965441,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9036880769,"gmtCreate":1647043691999,"gmtModify":1676534189944,"author":{"id":"3560241002253187","authorId":"3560241002253187","authorIdStr":"3560241002253187","name":"CL777","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9aef3dd830373a0427a3447b1b564e3","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3560241002253187"},"htmlText":"Best stock&nbsp;to own&nbsp;","listText":"Best stock&nbsp;to own&nbsp;","text":"Best stock to own","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9036880769","repostId":1180965441,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9036178046,"gmtCreate":1647034903646,"gmtModify":1676534188806,"author":{"id":"4105956376555170","authorId":"4105956376555170","authorIdStr":"4105956376555170","name":"muiee","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/21a493235e71c3c8b195f6554c25cfcc","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4105956376555170"},"htmlText":"Quite convincing thesis to invest in&nbsp;‌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">$Alphabet(GOOG)$</a>‌Good read!","listText":"Quite convincing thesis to invest in&nbsp;‌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">$Alphabet(GOOG)$</a>‌Good read!","text":"Quite convincing thesis to invest in ‌$Alphabet(GOOG)$‌Good read!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9036178046","repostId":1180965441,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9036129821,"gmtCreate":1647014908096,"gmtModify":1676534188015,"author":{"id":"3566524239552357","authorId":"3566524239552357","authorIdStr":"3566524239552357","name":"GANCL","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02bdb0309baf16b47e74509dc75824e6","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3566524239552357"},"htmlText":"For long term investment&nbsp;","listText":"For long term investment&nbsp;","text":"For long term investment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9036129821","repostId":1180965441,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9036110700,"gmtCreate":1647010402852,"gmtModify":1676534187235,"author":{"id":"4101774773443090","authorId":"4101774773443090","authorIdStr":"4101774773443090","name":"AricLo","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a2963eb37c60c5d6d4a8dbcd266952","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4101774773443090"},"htmlText":"Thanks","listText":"Thanks","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9036110700","repostId":1180965441,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9036194022,"gmtCreate":1647008777849,"gmtModify":1676534186784,"author":{"id":"3586223575744434","authorId":"3586223575744434","authorIdStr":"3586223575744434","name":"LimYH","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3586223575744434"},"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9036194022","repostId":1180965441,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":176,"commentSize":13,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.28.3","shortVersion":"4.28.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1180965441"}