DBS has released a research report maintaining its "Buy" rating on CATL (3750.HK), but due to the impact of rising tax rates weighing on profitability, it has lowered its Hong Kong-listed target price by 5.6%, from HK$736 to HK$695; simultaneously, it has reduced its A-share target price by 9.5%, from RMB 484 to RMB 438.
It has also cut its earnings per share forecast for next year from RMB 24.2 to RMB 21.9.
DBS noted that the negative impact of the battery export tax rebate reduction from 9% to 6% effective in April this year was concentrated in the third quarter.
The 2% battery consumption tax that took effect in September this year was mostly absorbed by battery manufacturers themselves, as they were unable to immediately renegotiate prices with customers.
Looking ahead, DBS expects industry profit pressure to continue into next year, mainly because China's battery export tax rebate will be completely eliminated from 6% in 2027, and the battery consumption tax will be further raised to 4% in September 2027, putting continued pressure on unit profits.
However, considering the strong demand for overseas electric vehicles and energy storage batteries, the company still anchors its 2027 shipment volume growth target of 20% to 30% year-on-year, and is optimistic about a steady pace of capacity expansion through 2030. Continuous scale expansion will partially offset the risk of narrowing unit profits, and the long-term growth logic remains solid.
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