Destiny Tech100 Inc. Soars 1100% In Just Days, So Here's A Closer Look At It

Seeking Alpha04-09

SummaryA new closed-end fund, DXYZ, has experienced significant price volatility, reaching a peak of $105 per share before closing around $99.DXYZ is not a stock or an ETF, but a closed-end fund that ...

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Soars 1100% In Just Days, So Here's A Closer Look At It","media":"Seeking Alpha","content":"<div>\n<p>SummaryA new closed-end fund, DXYZ, has experienced significant price volatility, reaching a peak of $105 per share before closing around $99.DXYZ is not a stock or an ETF, but a closed-end fund that ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4682523-destiny-tech100-inc-dxyz-rose-800-percent-in-just-days-a-closer-look\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"seekingalpha","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Destiny Tech100 Inc. Soars 1100% In Just Days, So Here's A Closer Look At It</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDestiny Tech100 Inc. Soars 1100% In Just Days, So Here's A Closer Look At It\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-04-09 10:45 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4682523-destiny-tech100-inc-dxyz-rose-800-percent-in-just-days-a-closer-look><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryA new closed-end fund, DXYZ, has experienced significant price volatility, reaching a peak of $105 per share before closing around $99.DXYZ is not a stock or an ETF, but a closed-end fund that ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4682523-destiny-tech100-inc-dxyz-rose-800-percent-in-just-days-a-closer-look\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"DXYZ","symbol_name":"Destiny Tech100 Inc","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4682523-destiny-tech100-inc-dxyz-rose-800-percent-in-just-days-a-closer-look","article_id":"1181153204","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181153204","pubTimestamp":1712630700,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"seekingalpha","name":"Seeking Alpha"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"No. And this is not meme stock. In fact, it is not even a stock. It is a closed-end fund, the Destiny Tech100 Inc. . Closed-end funds are not supposed to skyrocket like stock IPOs, even if their top holding is Elon Musk's SpaceX.When I first started to dive into this \"unidentified financial object\" I saw it referred to as an ETF on one of my charting systems, and as a stock on another source. That source did not have a spot for the fund's holdings to be listed, just a place where financial state","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"DXYZ":"Destiny Tech100 Inc"},"translate_title":"Destiny Tech100 Inc。在短短几天内飙升1100%，让我们仔细看看它","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"DXYZ":1.1},"content_text":"SummaryA new closed-end fund, DXYZ, has experienced significant price volatility, reaching a peak of $105 per share before closing around $99.DXYZ is not a stock or an ETF, but a closed-end fund that holds a portfolio of 100 private companies, with SpaceX being its largest holding.The fund offers potential for high returns, but also carries significant risk, and investors should approach it with caution and consider its role in their portfolio.John M Lund Photography IncStop me if you've heard this one before: a new closed-end fund debuts at $8.25 a share, and during its nine days of life as a listed security, peaks at $105. And just this Monday, trades in a 62% range, closing approached the top of that range, at around $100. Did Nvidia (NVDA) and GameStop (GME) have a baby? No. And this is not meme stock. In fact, it is not even a stock. It is a closed-end fund, the Destiny Tech100 Inc. (NYSE:DXYZ). Closed-end funds are not supposed to skyrocket like stock IPOs, even if their top holding is Elon Musk's SpaceX.When I first started to dive into this \"unidentified financial object\" I saw it referred to as an ETF on one of my charting systems, and as a stock on another source. That source did not have a spot for the fund's holdings to be listed, just a place where financial statements would go. For a stock! So, since the investment industry has not yet figured out what this is, I will sort out the ABCs of DXYZ. As for how to rate it, my true rating is \"check it out for yourself and tread lightly if you do decide to buy it.\" Because while I will probably buy a few shares, that's more to track it in my \"spec\" account, which is short for speculative.As I explain below, this is a unique way to allow \"regular folks\" like me to invest in a basket of 100 potentially big winners which are currently private companies. At worst, it could end up being only as good as investing in the private equity business. Historically, that means early entrants get the best returns, and by the time \"anyone\" can get in, the cycle is over. That leads to the masses ending up feeling like the ones holding the bag of money when the police show up in one of those classic crime movies.Still, my approach to investing is that ANY investment has potential to increase in price for any reason. The difference between a hypothetical security \"ABC\" and the very real DXYZ is how much risk of major loss is attached. That is a function of 2 things: what price movement occurs when DXYZ is owned, and more importantly, how much of a portfolio's total assets DXYZ makes up. For me, I am going to buy something along the lines of a small fraction of 1%, just to watch it. So when I take the fact that I'll own it, combined with the very puny size of my initial position, converting that rating into Seeking Alpha terms gets me to a Hold on DXYZ. Now, let's explore what this is and why I landed where I did. And yes, that was a SpaceX pun.What is DXYZ?DXYZ is a closed-end fund that holds, which means it trades on the stock exchange, but represents a portfolio or basket of securities, not a company. So it is a fund, but different from a traditional \"open-end\" mutual fund or an ETF. That difference comes from the fact that a closed end fund has a fixed number of shares, and so the basic concept of supply and demand is a big factor. The underlying value of the securities in DXYZ's portfolio, those 100 private companies, is not \"marked to market\" each day. So how is their value determined? By whatever price buyers and sellers in the market determine it to be. Just as with a single stock.DXYZ has 10.88 million shares outstanding, so its market cap as of last Friday stood at $644 million. That puts it near the top quartile in assets under management of the 418 closed-end funds on US markets.The fund aims to get to the 100 company mark, though it currently has about 1/4 of that number. These are pre-IPO companies, and for what it's worth Destiny's website claims that \"for many companies in the pre-IPO stage, there is a real opportunity to achieve a 10x-50x return.\"Holdings: the \"who's who\" of private companies, in one tickerI don't know what will become of this list of private businesses, but the access that DXYZ's managers have to own a piece of them is impressive to me. SpaceX is more than 1/3 of the fund so far, but I suspect as the portfolio fills out, that may dip. Even if it doesn't there are many chances to win here.destiny.xyzThis link to DXYZ's website does a nice job of detailing the process they use to construct the fund, and this is well above the level of description offered by many closed-end funds and ETFs. That's a big plus to me.And, this link to DXYZ's 12/31/2023 filing provides some helpful additional information. It was issued back before it was a listed security. Note that the fund lost 7.3% in 2023, 50% below the return of the Nasdaq Composite. And the fund was down 23% from its 5/12/2022 inception through the end of last year, versus a nearly 20% gain for the Nasdaq. I see this as a positive, given the cyclicality of private equity discussed below.What is the reward potential of DXYZ?AI is more than just a buzzword now. It is our future, we just don't know the path it will take. There will be winners, big winners and also losers. Perhaps the most attractive feature of DXYZ is the nature of private equity investing itself. Whereas traditional equity investing is focused on diversification to spread risk, I have always thought of private equity differently. Here, you go in knowing that risk is extremely high, but if you spread that over 100 companies, it might only take a handful making it big to more than offset whatever failures occur in the rest of the group.Frankly, the Nasdaq 100 has performed a lot more like private equity over the past six months than a standard, evenly-distributed pattern of stock market winners and losers. Here is a snapshot from those past 6 months. Note that the big winners in green all contributed a dominant amount in dollars per share (in the QQQ ETF) as shown above, and in percentage \"attribution\" in the bottom table, not only the past half year but for the past year as well.YChartsThe Nasdaq 100 Index is up 23% the past 6 months, but more than half of that (13%) came from just 8 of the 100 stocks. This \"feast or famine\" set of results is likely more common and more pronounced going forward in private equity, and thus positions DXYZ for me as either an enticing small position, or a truly \"token\" position, which is even smaller, just enough to have it appear on my holdings screen.What are the key risk factors in owning DXYZ?While DXYZ represents the next step in the democratization of investing, where any investor can try to profit from the future gains of private businesses, the biggest risk I see is not with the fund itself. It is with how investors use it. In the same way that meme stock investors refused to sell after making life-changing gains, I am always wary of seeing investors extrapolate past gains forward. That said, here's some history, albeit with the disclaimer that private equity and venture capital are diverse beasts, and indexing that market is not precise as it is with the S&P 500, as I compare it to here.The S&P 500 has had a nice run for the past 10 years or so. Same for private equity.Data by YChartsHowever, when we look at rolling returns, as I always do, to find the return path, rather than just a snapshot, we see the past non-correlation of the 2. These are annualized 5-year total returns. So yes, your eyes do not deceive you. The private equity index has seen gains of roughly 100% a year for 5 years, and also seen losses of 60% per year for 5 years. All of that just in the past 10 years!Data by YChartsThere is a cycle here, and I am not surprised to see private equity near the top of the cycle. This is also exactly when I'd expect a fund like DXYZ to debut: when they can ride the wave of greed and FOMO around an asset class. This is why for my own money, I insist on prioritizing position size in most assets over what I actually own. That may sound strange to some, but simply put, a 10%-20% position in anything is likely to provide more reward and risk than a 1%-2% position in anything, except T-bills.Looking forward, Northern Trust projects an annualized long-term return of 9.6% in private equity, versus 6.3% for global stocks. My only reaction is that private equity will typically have a higher return than common stocks. The question is whether there is a plus sign or minus sign in front of that return.northerntrust.comnortherntrust.comThere is also a big expense ratio here, 2.5%, well above most funds, though not out of line for a closed-end fund. My take on expense ratio: wholly overrated by investors, especially my peers in the profession. If one is buying an S&P 500 index fund to hold for 20 years, surely expense ratio is a critical factor.But that's a commoditized investment. This is a unique investment, and you get what you pay for. McDonald's and that high end steak restaurant are not priced the same, yet some may prefer one over the other. If you pay up for something but get more return, or at least more \"potential\" return from doing so, I truly do not care too much about what I paid for it, at least up to 2-3% expense ratio. No doubt others will disagree, and they do. That's what makes a market.What I'm doing with DXYZI will start with a mere 0.5% of my own total portfolio, with an eye toward moving it up to 1%, and then as much as 5% if I can do so after netting some unrealized gains. But I'm willing to lose a chunk of that 1% position, as I see potential upside beyond that small amount of risk I'm taking.By the way, every investing decision I make involves a similar calculation, and I think this is the number one thing missing from many investors' processes. That's why I keep bringing it up.So, DXYZ gets a buy rating from me right out of the gate. But as they say, size matters, and my position size here is going to be very low for now, as I see if this first of its kind listed security has the potential it seems to have.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":11,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.22.4","shortVersion":"4.22.4","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1181153204"}