Guosen Securities released a research report stating that AI Agents are pulling CPU demand, aiming to support Agent task orchestration, sandboxes, tool operation, and more. According to data disclosed by IDC, the global CPU market size is expected to grow to USD 130.78 billion by 2030, corresponding to a CAGR of 34.1% from 2025 to 2030; the domestic CPU market is also growing rapidly, with the market share of domestic CPUs continuing to rise. The main views of Guosen Securities are as follows:
CPU is the core of computers, with performance continuing to improve
The CPU is the caller and runner of programs. Every instruction of a program must be parsed and executed by the CPU. When external data is input to a computer, the CPU needs to receive it; after a program finishes running, the CPU must issue instructions before the computation results can be output to the outside. From the history of CPU development, the word length, transistor count, main frequency, and core count of CPUs have continued to increase.
CPU demand side: AI Agents drive CPU demand growth
In 2025, the global CPU market size was USD 74.737 billion, YoY +10%, of which the consumer-grade CPU market size was USD 44.530 billion, YoY +9%, and the server CPU market size was USD 30.207 billion, YoY +12%. CPU demand driver one: the AI Headnode ratio is gradually shifting from 4:1 to 2:1. In 2024, NVIDIA released the GB200 superchip, whose CPU:GPU configuration was raised to 1:2. As the penetration rate of NVIDIA's new-generation chips rises rapidly, the AI Headnode ratio is expected to gradually shift from 4:1 to 2:1. CPU demand driver two: AI large models are gradually shifting from ChatBot to Agent workflows. The CPU is responsible for orchestrating the relationships among sub-agents, and at the same time, the external resources called by each sub-agent (such as databases, search engines, etc.) also require CPU support, driving CPU demand to begin growing. In May 2026, AMD held an earnings conference call, and AMD CEO Lisa Su raised the 2030 global server CPU market size to USD 120 billion, corresponding to an annual growth rate increased to 35%+.
CPU supply side: x86 architecture dominates, ARM architecture share continues to rise
1) Server CPU: In 2025, the shares of x86 architecture and ARM architecture were 87.0% and 10.0% respectively, with x86 architecture dominating and ARM's share continuing to rise; Intel and AMD occupy the main market share, while AWS and NVIDIA's self-developed CPUs are rapidly ramping up. 2) Consumer-grade CPU: PC CPUs mainly include desktop CPU and notebook CPU, with Intel and AMD occupying the main market share; for tablet CPUs, considering features such as low power consumption and long battery life, ARM architecture CPUs occupy the main market share, with Apple, Qualcomm, and MediaTek as global leaders.
Global CPU prices are rising, and domestic CPU substitution is expected to accelerate
In 2026, global CPUs are in short supply, and Intel and AMD CPU prices are rising. Domestic CPU substitution for companies such as Hygon Information and HiSilicon Kunpeng is expected to accelerate. Risk warnings: risk of CPU demand falling short of expectations, risk of CPU price declines, and risk of internet giants' self-developed CPUs replacing third-party CPUs.
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