According to Orient Securities, leading humanoid robot companies like Tesla (TSLA.US) have recently demonstrated advanced motion control technologies. As the industry enters a rapid development phase, market focus is expected to shift toward mass production capabilities. Among the challenges in mass production, the "brain" model stands out as one of the most critical hurdles. To accelerate brain evolution, faster mass production is anticipated by the first half of 2026 (H1 2026). From a future mass production perspective, component manufacturers with strong manufacturing and management capabilities are poised to benefit significantly. Key stocks to watch include Top Group (601689.SH), Sanhua Intelligent Controls (002050.SZ), Wuzhou Xinchun (603667.SH), Hengli Hydraulics (601100.SH), and Zhenyu Technology (300953.SZ).
Orient Securities highlights the following key insights: 1. **Rapid Progress in Motion Control by 2025, Mass Production as 2026’s Focus** Tesla and Unitree Robotics have showcased impressive product technologies, reflecting rapid advancements in humanoid robot motion control in 2025. Tesla’s December 19 video, *Tesla Humanoid Robot 2025 Annual Report*, detailed the technical iterations and evolution of its Optimus robot over the past year, demonstrating its progression from basic motion control to complex interactive scenarios. By May, Optimus mastered dancing, folding clothes, and handling trash; by September, it could make popcorn; and by October, it performed kung fu. Meanwhile, Unitree’s G1 humanoid robot participated in a December 18 Wang Leehom concert in Chengdu, executing high-difficulty dance moves. Orient Securities believes that while motion control has advanced rapidly in 2025, its market impact will diminish as the industry shifts focus to mass production in 2026.
2. **Three Key Mass Production Challenges, with the "Brain" as the Top Priority** Tesla CEO Elon Musk identified three industry-wide challenges: dexterous hands, an AI brain capable of understanding the real world, and large-scale production capabilities. Orient Securities notes these correspond to marginal hardware improvements, functional breakthroughs (0 to 1), and efficiency/cost optimization. For humanoid robots, hardware serves scenarios and can be improved incrementally, while cost and efficiency rely on automation and economies of scale. However, embodied AI brains remain immature, making them the most critical hurdle for mass production.
3. **Accelerated Brain Evolution to Drive Faster Mass Production, Bullish on H1 2026 Opportunities** Tesla employs multiple methods to advance brain development, including data collection teams and in-house world model training for Optimus. Since training speed correlates with robot quantity, manufacturers may expedite mass production to accelerate brain evolution. Tesla’s Q3 earnings call revealed Musk’s expectation of prototype readiness by February-March 2026, signaling promising investment opportunities around H1 2026.
**Risks**: Potential production delays, unclear demand scenarios, policy changes slowing industry growth, funding shortfalls, slower-than-expected model/data development, underwhelming order execution, and price competition.
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