On Monday, May 18th, international gold prices opened at $4531.02 per ounce, reaching a high of $4585.03 and a low of $4480.01 before closing at $4566.39. The daily range was $105.02, resulting in a gain of $27.00, or 0.59%. The daily candlestick chart formed a small bullish candle with a long lower shadow. Overall, the $4500 per ounce level, which was briefly lost, has been regained, bringing prices back into the $4500-$4800 consolidation range. Whether the upper boundary of this range will be tested depends on overcoming near-term resistance around $4625.
Fundamentally, uncertainty persists regarding U.S.-Iran negotiations. On the economic data front, Monday lacked major macroeconomic releases, keeping market focus on interest rate and bond market pricing. The prevailing expectation is for the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady, with increased possibilities for future hikes, a policy outlook that continues to weigh on gold. However, JPMorgan noted that the significant rise in U.S. Treasury yields this month may be nearing its peak, as market pricing for the policy path appears more hawkish than the firm's baseline scenario. This expectation of a yield peak has alleviated some downward pressure on gold. Additionally, the U.S. dollar index retreated after approaching the 100 level, providing support for gold's recovery.
In summary, while gold faces a mix of bullish and bearish factors, a clear trend is lacking. Easing geopolitical tensions and expectations of peaking bond yields are counterbalanced by the Fed's still-tight policy stance. In the short term, gold is likely to maintain a consolidative pattern.
Technically, the weekly chart shows that since April, prices have oscillated repeatedly around the middle Bollinger Band, failing to break above it for three consecutive weeks. Prices weakened again last week. The near-term weekly moving average zone of $4628-$4638 remains the primary resistance area, with the first resistance level at the $4600 round number.
On the daily chart, Monday's price action saw gold briefly pierce the $4500 level before finding support and rebounding, though a clear bottoming pattern is not yet evident. On one hand, the short-term moving averages are in a bearish alignment above the price, capping the rebound. On the other hand, the middle Bollinger Band remains weak and shows signs of extending downward.
Overall, while gold found support and rebounded near the $4500 level, significant overhead resistance remains. The intraday outlook is still treated as range-bound. Key support levels are seen at $4530 and the $4500 round number, while resistance is positioned at $4600 and the $4630-$4640 range.
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