Barclays has released a new research report indicating that with the deep integration of artificial intelligence and robotics technology, the market size of AI-driven robots and autonomous machines is expected to expand to the trillion-dollar level by 2035. This represents an order-of-magnitude leap from the current scale, positioning the sector as one of the most promising investment themes of the next decade. According to the report titled "The Decade of Robotics," published by Barclays analysts on Tuesday, the relatively mature field of autonomous vehicles will lead the initial growth, followed by drones, and eventually extending to more complex, general-purpose humanoid robots. The report suggests that the degree of automation and application complexity will increase in a stepwise manner.
Zornitsa Todorova, Head of Thematic Fixed Income Research at Barclays, stated in the report that simultaneous advancements in computational "brains," mechanical "muscles," and energy systems such as batteries are pushing AI-enabled robotics toward a critical inflection point, with the potential to reshape the investment landscape over the next decade. Analysts pointed out that the development of robotics and other forms of "physical AI" signifies a shift from an AI phase dominated by software and digital applications to a new paradigm of deep interaction with the real world. This transition is expected to foster a broader and deeper value chain than the first wave of AI products, providing a long-term growth foundation for multiple industries.
From a regional perspective, China currently maintains a dominant position in the deployment of humanoid and industrial robots. However, Barclays anticipates that nearly 200 listed companies will be deeply involved in this theme over the next decade, with approximately 100 of these companies having issued at least one corporate bond. Analysts believe traditional automobile manufacturers are likely to become significant participants, while the deployment of robotic systems in warehousing, logistics, and retail sectors will continue to accelerate. The report cited examples such as Mercedes-Benz Group utilizing NVIDIA's Omniverse platform for "digital twin" factory simulations to minimize production disruptions, and Tesla highlighting its robotics business as a core focus during its latest earnings call.
Upstream in the supply chain, analysts emphasized software and hardware providers that form the foundational support for robotics and physical AI. This includes semiconductor and infrastructure suppliers such as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Samsung Electronics, and NVIDIA. Additionally, robotic hardware and motion control systems responsible for executing physical actions, along with the battery segment that provides their energy base, are considered critical components. Key players in this area include manufacturers like EVE Energy Co., Ltd. and CATL.
Barclays also categorized certain companies as "enablers"—those either directly manufacturing complete robotic systems, such as Tesla, or shaping a broader ecosystem through technology and platforms, like Amazon. The application trend of physical AI is already evident in large-scale logistics and retail systems. Analysts noted that Amazon currently deploys over one million robots within its fulfillment network, yet this scale "likely represents only a fraction of the long-term potential." Similar trends are gradually unfolding in the operations of major retailers like Walmart, further underscoring the vast prospects of the robotics and autonomous machines market.
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