On December 12, central banks continued to increase their gold holdings, while ETF holdings approached historical highs. Against the backdrop of stable and elevated gold prices, multiple macroeconomic tailwinds have fueled further bullish sentiment. EasyMarkets noted that in the current strong cycle for precious metals, dual support from investment demand and policy conditions suggests gold's upward trajectory remains flexible over the next year. ING's 2026 gold outlook report similarly emphasized that, after doubling in the past two years, gold prices could still benefit from central bank purchases, a weaker U.S. dollar, and potential rate cuts.
In its second-stage analysis, EasyMarkets highlighted that gold's key drivers remain firmly in place. Historically, gold has shown sensitivity to global economic uncertainty: surpassing $1,000 after the financial crisis, breaching $2,000 during the pandemic, exceeding $3,000 following U.S. tariff policy announcements, and briefly hitting $4,000 amid recent prolonged government shutdowns. Against this backdrop, global investment and reserve demand climbed to a new high of 1,313 tons in Q3, with ETF inflows reaching 222 tons, bar and coin demand holding steady at 316 tons, and central bank purchases surging nearly 30% quarter-on-quarter to 220 tons.
Central banks remain a critical pillar of global gold demand, with Q3 purchases 6% above the five-year average. Several economies, including some in Europe and Asia, resumed or accelerated gold accumulation at various points this year, reflecting gold's elevated role amid shifting asset allocation strategies. EasyMarkets added that institutional investors and ETFs have also returned to the gold market, with further upside potential as rate-cut expectations grow.
However, potential challenges loom, including discussions by some nations to sell portions of their gold reserves or a cooling of safe-haven demand if risk sentiment improves. While mining supply is seen as a possible headwind, EasyMarkets views its impact as limited, given stable global production in recent years and minimal supply-side pressure on prices.
Considering macro conditions, investment flows, and central bank demand, EasyMarkets projects gold could hit new highs in 2026, albeit with slower gains than this year. ING forecasts an average 2026 price of $4,325 per ounce. EasyMarkets cautioned that large-scale market sell-offs or weaker safe-haven demand may trigger short-term pressure, but downside risks appear contained as weakness tends to attract fresh institutional and retail buying.
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