Attention is turning to the coming week, which will be crucial for energy investors.
Exxon Mobil (XOM.US), Chevron (CVX.US), Marathon Petroleum (MPC.US), and ConocoPhillips (COP.US) will release earnings one after another.
Industry observer Brian Sullivan put it bluntly: these numbers will be astonishing—so large they can only be described as "Texas-sized."
The expected figures for Exxon Mobil, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips are as noted above, with all three companies' earnings per share (EPS) projected to more than double from a year earlier.
For companies focused on refining, the picture is different.
Marathon Petroleum's EPS expectation is as high as $25.37. Three months ago, the company's EPS was $17.73, while the market expectation was "only" $14.27. Another comparison: just a year ago, this Ohio-based company's earnings per share were only $4.51. Surging oil prices and, more critically, a sharp widening in refined product "crack spreads" are expected to boost its sales by $13 billion within a year.
For the four companies above, guidance may matter more than the earnings themselves. Their comments on the outlook and capital spending are the key, and any adjustment to spending plans will draw close investor scrutiny.
These numbers will also be watched closely by the political world. As oil prices rise, politicians will likely seize on these huge figures to attack the entire industry. An industry source said the sector has become "accustomed" to political attacks, but hopes outsiders will pay more attention to the industry's boom-and-bust cyclical nature—the profits companies are earning now will be used to withstand future downturns, in preparation for the decline in oil prices that will "eventually" arrive at some point in the future.
Regardless of one's stance on oil majors, the coming week will be dramatic for energy investors across multiple dimensions—all of it in full view.
BTIG chart analyst Jonathan Krinsky cautioned that investors should remain cautious on the energy sector. As for refiners, he noted that the S&P Refining Index has risen nearly 160% in 2026, at least its best year in three decades, and by a wide margin. Krinsky wrote earlier this week: "At a minimum, expect consolidation in the sector, and more likely a significant downward mean reversion."
Krinsky is bearish on the technical setups for Valero Energy and Marathon Petroleum. For the latter, he said the stock "has not truly broken below its uptrend, but it feels like a breakdown is imminent."
Next week will feature one of the world's most important energy conferences: the Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition and Conference (ADIPEC). The event brings together global energy heavyweights, all at a time when markets worry the United States may launch a new round of strikes on Iran or its energy infrastructure, with tensions still running high.
Oil has been able to continue flowing through the Strait of Hormuz, partly because the U.S. Navy is ensuring vessels can pass. But risks remain: the Iran conflict could reignite, and the United States could launch new strikes on Iranian targets. If that happens, oil prices are likely to jump.
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