US equities slipped in early trading, with a Treasury rally fading as investors bet that the Treasury Department's plan to lower borrowing costs may only provide short-term relief. Meanwhile, rising oil prices further stoked inflation concerns. At 9:45 AM in New York, the S&P 500 and the Nuveen NASDAQ 100 Dynamic Overwrite Fund fell 0.2%, while the Dow dropped 0.7%. The Nasdaq 100 is on track for its fifth consecutive day of declines. Walmart also traded lower after reporting weaker-than-expected sales.
The 30-year Treasury yield has climbed back to levels seen before the Treasury announced an expansion of long-term bond buybacks. Brent crude hovered near $94 per barrel, as US President Donald Trump's threats against Iran's economy dimmed prospects for an end to the conflict. Matt Maley of Miller Tabak noted, "Treasury Secretary Bessent's statement yesterday seemed to weaken rather than strengthen investor confidence. Given that we are entering a seasonally unfavorable period for markets, this is not a good sign."
Dennis Debusschere, chief market strategist at 22V Research, pointed out that the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has a "high correlation" with oil prices. With crude near $90 per barrel and the market not pricing in any Fed rate hikes, yields face upward pressure, creating headwinds for equities.
Traders are now looking to Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium next week for clues on the interest rate path. Peter Tchir, head of macro strategy at Academy Securities, commented on the Treasury's move: "On its own, this measure is only moderately effective. We need a very strong signal of rate cuts, and some clear guidance from Warsh, or this rally will quickly fade."
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