The AI sector has remained the strongest trend in the U.S. stock market over the past few weeks. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices have rebounded approximately 11% and 18% from their lows, respectively, with capital flowing back into technology, data centers, and related infrastructure.
The true test arrives next Thursday. After the market close on Wednesday, April 29th, U.S. time, Google, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon are scheduled to report their earnings in quick succession. Converted to Beijing time, this falls between the early morning and morning of Thursday, April 30th. Google's conference call is set for 1:30 PM Pacific Time, while Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon's calls are all scheduled for 2:30 PM. The four companies are presenting their results almost simultaneously.
The recent market rally is not without substance. These companies continue to increase their investments. Google's capital expenditure guidance for this year is between $175 billion and $185 billion; Meta's projected range is $115 billion to $135 billion; Microsoft's capital expenditure last quarter reached $37.5 billion, with about two-thirds allocated to short-cycle assets like graphics processing units and central processing units; Amazon, in its shareholder letter, directly raised its projected 2026 capital expenditure to approximately $200 billion. The continued influx of capital is itself a key reason the market remains confident in chasing these stocks.
The primary pressure on Google this time lies on the cost side. The company had previously indicated that depreciation growth would accelerate in the first quarter and rise significantly for the full year. Continued increases in investment are expected; the market is more concerned with whether cloud business and AI-related revenues can absorb these expenditures more quickly. If the earnings report only confirms that Google will keep spending, it may not greatly surprise the stock price; stabilizing cloud business and profit margins simultaneously would carry much greater significance.
Microsoft faces a different kind of test. With capital expenditure already at $37.5 billion, management continues to state that demand still exceeds supply. This is a strong signal that has also raised market expectations considerably. As long as Azure growth and enterprise demand continue to rise, Microsoft can justify its high investment as locking in market share early; however, if growth rates fail to support such substantial spending, the market's focus will shift from orders to the return cycle.
Meta's challenge is the most direct. It possesses the strongest advertising cash flow alongside the most aggressive infrastructure investment. The company has explicitly stated that 2026 capital expenditure will rise to between $115 billion and $135 billion, while full-year operating profit will still be higher than in 2025. With such a clear statement, the market's judgment post-earnings will be swift: can the profitability of the advertising business continue to cover the expansion speed of AI investments?
Amazon's situation follows a different rhythm. Its issue is not just high spending, but that the payoff for much of this expenditure is projected further into the future. Andy Jassy made it clear in the shareholder letter that most of the cloud business capital expenditure for 2026 will gradually materialize in 2027 to 2028, and the company has already secured significant customer commitments. On another front, AWS added 3.9 gigawatts of power capacity in 2025, with total capacity expected to double by the end of 2027, yet the company still acknowledges capacity constraints and unmet demand. In Amazon's upcoming report, the market will pay close attention to management's commentary on customer commitments, capacity ramp-up, and the timeline for realization.
This is the more critical aspect to watch next Thursday. Recently, the market has primarily been trading on "who is still willing to spend." Now, the scale of investment has become too large to be supported by narrative alone. Once the earnings are released, the questions will become more concrete: Is revenue growth accelerating further? Are orders becoming clearer? Are profit margins and cash flow starting to show strain? Among the four companies, whoever can satisfactorily address all these points will solidify their position. Those whose investments remain largely in the realm of distant imagination will likely experience greater volatility.
For assets, the initial impact will be felt by the four giants themselves. Post-earnings, stock prices may be determined not just by how much revenue and earnings per share exceed estimates, but more likely by the full-year capital expenditure guidance, cloud business growth rates, disclosures of AI-related revenue, and whether there are signs of more significant pressure on profit margins. Looking further out, the semiconductor, server, networking equipment, and data center equipment supply chain remains most directly tied to the spending of these major players. Recent divergence in the performance of software and chip stocks indicates the market is starting to concentrate on areas closer to actual orders and infrastructure within this theme. If the four earnings reports continue to confirm strong demand and capital expenditure intensity, this divergence is likely to become more pronounced.
Therefore, next Thursday resembles a screening point more than a master switch. There is currently no evidence suggesting the end of the AI trend, as both enthusiasm and capital inflows persist. What is more likely to happen is a continued differentiation in internal valuation methods. Companies demonstrating faster realization, firmer orders, and more stable profits will continue to command a premium; conversely, companies and segments with high investments and significant potential, but less clear paths to回报, will likely see more pronounced stock price fluctuations.
On earnings day, the key focus should remain on a few specific items: Will the full-year capital expenditure guidance be revised upward again? Will cloud business growth rates continue to accelerate? Is there clearer disclosure regarding AI-related revenue? Are there signs of more noticeable pressure on profit margins and cash flow? As long as growth and demand remain strong across these four questions, and cost pressures are not significantly out of control, the current trading theme is not over. If the market is forced to reassess, it will likely start with the most expensive, crowded, and远期-dependent segments first.
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