On May 13th, COMEX gold experienced a volatile decline, though losses were limited, closing at $4697.1 per ounce, up 0.22%. Domestically, SHFE gold opened lower and continued to fall during the night session before rebounding to fill the gap, ending at 1029.20 yuan per gram, a gain of 0.11%.
The U.S. April PPI data significantly exceeded expectations, rising 6% year-over-year, with the monthly increase being the largest since 2022. Core PPI increased 5.2% year-over-year, reaching its highest level in over three years. This marks the second consecutive inflation report this week to come in above forecasts. U.S. long and short-term bond yields have risen for three consecutive days, with the 10-year Treasury yield edging up 1.4 basis points to hold at 4.47%. The market continues to adjust its expectations for the Federal Reserve's policy path, with the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike this year rising to 50%. As expectations for rate cuts cool further, gold's performance appears somewhat pressured.
Looking ahead, according to OPEC's monthly report, Russia's average daily crude oil production in April fell to 9.057 million barrels, a decrease of 107,000 barrels from the revised March figure, marking the lowest level since June of last year. This production shortfall is compounding with the situation in the Middle East, creating a dual supply pressure. The IEA also stated in its Oil Market Report that, with global oil inventories already declining at a record pace, oil prices may experience further volatility ahead of the peak summer demand season. If oil prices remain elevated, reigniting inflation expectations, the likelihood of subsequent Fed rate hikes could increase. Market focus will be on the interest rate direction signaled in this week's speech by Fed Governor Waller.
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