Goldman Sachs has increased its target price for COSCO SHIP ENGY's H-shares from HK$29 to HK$30, citing an expected rise in return on equity that supports a higher target price-to-book ratio. The target P/B ratio for H-shares has been raised from 2.4x to 2.5x, with a "Buy" rating maintained. The bank noted that COSCO SHIP ENGY's first-quarter results slightly exceeded downwardly revised market expectations. Excluding a one-time gain of RMB 126 million from asset sales, adjusted quarterly net profit reached RMB 2.1 billion, slightly above the market forecast of RMB 1.8-1.9 billion. Goldman Sachs highlighted that a significant number of LR2 tankers shifting to dirty oil transportation has reduced effective capacity and driven up product tanker freight rates, leading to a 3-4% upward revision in profit forecasts for 2026-2028. For crude oil tankers, the bank largely maintained its forecast for VLCC average daily time charter rates at $150,000 in 2026 and $130,000 in 2027. The report suggests that the VLCC supercycle is being driven by tight capacity and reinforced by industry consolidation, with COSCO SHIP ENGY positioned as a key beneficiary.
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