Lithium sector stocks extended their recent upward trend. At the time of writing, GANFENGLITHIUM (01772) rose 6.62% to HK$72.5, while TIANQI LITHIUM (09696) gained 3.33% to HK$46.48. On the news front, data released by Shanghai Metals Market showed that on March 24, the average prices of battery-grade lithium carbonate and industrial-grade lithium carbonate were 147,500 yuan/ton and 144,500 yuan/ton, respectively, both increasing by 1,000 yuan/ton from the previous day. Over a longer period, lithium carbonate prices have surged more than 140% from the low point in June 2025. Industry insiders believe the price increase results from a combination of factors including supply disruptions at the mining level, shifting expectations, and supply-demand dynamics. Huatai Securities noted that liquidity tightening and changes in risk appetite due to Middle East events previously contributed to weaker lithium price performance. However, considering potential supply disruptions in domestic Yichun and overseas regions like Zimbabwe in the second half of the year, coupled with rising demand expectations for electric vehicles and energy storage driven by high oil prices, global lithium carbonate supply and demand are expected to maintain a tight balance under neutral assumptions for 2026—such as global new energy vehicle sales growing 10%-15% year-on-year and energy storage cell shipments increasing 50%-60%.
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