Data collected over the past 24 hours for the liquor price index indicates that the average terminal retail price for major Chinese baijiu products experienced a slight overall decline on April 26th. If one bottle of each major product were bundled together for sale, the total price today would be 9,959 yuan, a decrease of 8 yuan from the previous day, representing a minor pullback from recent highs. The market is undergoing a technical adjustment after hitting a 20-day peak the previous day. Terminal trading sentiment remains relatively stable, although trading volume has decreased. Significant divergence in price movements among core products persists.
Among the 11 major baijiu products tracked today, four saw price increases, six decreased, and one remained flat, with declining products outnumbering gainers. On the upside, Premium Moutai led the gains, rising by 5 yuan per bottle. Gujing贡酒's Gu 20 increased by 3 yuan per bottle, marking a second consecutive day of gains and reaching its highest price in nearly a month. Yanghe's Dream Blue M6+ rose by 2 yuan per bottle, while Wuliangye Yibin Co.,Ltd.'s 1618 saw a minor increase of 1 yuan per bottle.
On the downside, Wuliangye Yibin Co.,Ltd.'s standard Eighth Generation product and Xijiu's Junpin led the declines, both falling by 5 yuan per bottle. Luzhou Laojiao's 1573 decreased by 4 yuan per bottle. Feitian Moutai dropped by 3 yuan per bottle, experiencing a slight retreat after a strong rally over the previous two days. Fenjiu's Blue and White 20 and Langjiu's Blue and White Flower both saw minor declines of 1 yuan per bottle. The price of Jiannanchun's Crystal Sword remained unchanged compared to the previous period.
The daily data is sourced from approximately 200 collection points reasonably distributed across major regions of the country. These points include, but are not limited to, liquor company-appointed distributors, independent distributors, e-commerce platforms, and retail outlets. The raw sample data consists of actual transacted terminal retail prices from these points over the past 24 hours, aiming to provide objective, scientific, and fully traceable data on the market prices of well-known baijiu products. Following the official launch of Feitian Moutai at 1,499 yuan per bottle on the iMoutai platform (increased to 1,539 yuan per bottle on March 31st) and the launch of Premium Moutai at 2,299 yuan per bottle on January 9th, the gravitational influence of this new channel on the terminal retail prices of these two products is gradually becoming apparent. The daily liquor prices published by the index follow a calculation rule weighted by actual transaction volume, and the quantifiable prices from this new channel have been incorporated into the terminal retail price calculations for these two products.
In other significant baijiu industry news, Guohai Securities released a research report yesterday commenting on Kweichow Moutai's first-quarter results. The report stated that Kweichow Moutai's valuation logic is undergoing another shift, with subsequent valuation recovery potentially unfolding in two stages: first, volume growth of the standard Moutai driving a certain valuation repair, followed by the full realization of the Premium Moutai logic, promoting sustained valuation increases. Guohai believes that, from a supply perspective, Moutai liquor production capacity remains scarce, with total sales volume expected to be around 50,000 tons in 2026. From a wholesale price perspective, demand expansion in the first half of 2026 is expected to drive volume growth of the standard Moutai initially. In the second half of the year, as supply decreases, wholesale prices may continue to recover, while high-value-added products like Premium Moutai are expected to release greater earnings elasticity in the medium to long term. Regarding investment recommendations, Guohai forecasts Kweichow Moutai's total operating revenue for 2026 to 2028 to be 179.3 billion yuan, 189.6 billion yuan, and 205.4 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 4%, 6%, and 8%, respectively. Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 84.3 billion yuan, 87.8 billion yuan, and 94.2 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 2%, 4%, and 7%, respectively. The firm maintains a "Buy" rating.
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