In November, the airline industry demonstrated resilience with expanded year-on-year growth in supply and demand, defying seasonal weakness. Load factors improved YoY, driven by sustained domestic route expansion and international routes surpassing 2019 levels. Performance varied among carriers.
According to operational data from six listed airlines, total industry supply and demand rose 7.1% and 10.3% YoY, respectively, reaching 110.4% and 116.7% of 2019 levels. The average load factor climbed 2.5 percentage points YoY to 85.6%, up 4.6 percentage points from 2019.
**Route Breakdown**: - **Domestic**: Supply and demand grew 4.2% and 6.8% YoY, respectively, at 113.3% and 118.2% of 2019 levels. Load factors rose 2.1 percentage points YoY to 86.6%. - **International**: Supply and demand surged 15.0% and 20.7% YoY, recovering to 104.8% and 113.5% of 2019 levels. Load factors jumped 3.9 percentage points YoY to 83.4%. - **Regional**: Demand edged up 2.6% YoY despite a 2.2% supply dip, with load factors up 3.7 percentage points YoY to 80.4%.
**Carrier Performance**: - **Major Airlines**: China Eastern Airlines led with an 87.4% load factor (+3.0pp YoY), while Air China showed the fastest recovery (+3.9pp YoY to 83.3%). - **Private Airlines**: Spring Airlines maintained the highest load factor at 92.3% (+1.9pp YoY). Juneyao Airlines faced constraints due to delayed engine maintenance, with domestic supply dipping 0.5% YoY.
**Challenges and Outlook**: Short-term demand pressure persists on China-Japan routes, with flight cancellations expected at 30.4% in December. However, the medium-to-long-term recovery trend remains intact, supported by a 3.4% YoY fare increase and resilient demand. GF Securities recommends Hainan Airlines Holding (600221.SH) and China Express Airlines (002928.SZ) as top picks, alongside Air China, Juneyao Airlines, and Spring Airlines.
**Risks**: Tariff policy uncertainty, geopolitical shifts, and oil price volatility.
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