MMG (01208) saw an intraday rise of nearly 3%, trading at HK$8.1 by press time with a turnover of HK$201 million. Research from HSBC indicates that MMG's Las Bambas mine is operating smoothly this quarter, with Q4 copper production expected to surpass 100,000 tonnes, and all on-site inventory projected to be sold by year-end.
The Kinsevere mine expansion remains on track, while output at the Khoemacau mine is anticipated to increase quarter-on-quarter as new contractors stabilize operations. Both the Dugald River and Rosebery mines maintained stable performance this quarter, supported by an optimistic commodity market environment, tight copper concentrate supply, and seasonal strength in zinc prices.
HSBC forecasts MMG will achieve its full-year production guidance of approximately 500,000 tonnes of copper and 230,000 tonnes of zinc, with modest growth expected in 2026. However, due to limited production expansion, earnings remain highly sensitive to copper price fluctuations—each 1% change in copper prices could impact 2026 earnings by around 1.7%.
The report maintains a "Hold" rating, citing strong Q4 momentum, stable copper and zinc output, and firm metal prices. Las Bambas is expected to sustain steady production, while Kinsevere's output growth hinges on power supply availability. Although copper fundamentals have improved, near-term upside potential appears constrained.
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